Subjunctive Reasoning
I am indebted to many people for the help they gave me in the writing of this book. lowe a large debt to David Lewis and Robert Stalnaker, on both general and specific grounds. As becomes apparent from reading the notes, the book would not have been possi
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PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES SERIES IN PHILOSOPHY Editors: WILFRID SELLARS, KEITH LEHRER,
University of Pittsburgh University of Arizona
Board of Consulting Editors: JONATHAN BENNETT, ALAN GIBBARD,
University of British Columbia University of Pittsburgh
ROBERT STALNAKER, ROBERT G. TURNBULL,
Cornell University Ohio State University
VOLUME 8
JOHN L. POLLOCK University of Rochester
SUBJUNCTIVE REASONING
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY DORDRECHT-HOLLAND/BOSTON-U.S.A.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Pollock, John L Subjunctive reasoning. (Philosophical studies series in philosophy; v. 8) Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Conditionals (Logic) 2. Reasoning. 3. Counterfactuals (Logic) 4. Probabilities. I. Title. BC199.C56P64 160 76-19095 ISBN-13: 978-94-010-1502-8 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-010-1500-4 DOl: 10.1 007978-94-0 10-1500-4
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company, P.O. Box 17, Dordrecht, Holland Sold and distributed in the U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Inc. Lincoln Building, 160 Old Derby Street, Hingham, Mass. 02043, U.S.A.
All Rights Reserved Copyright © 1976 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st Edition 1976 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any informational storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
TO CAROL who puts up with me
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE I. INTRODUCTION
1. 2. 3. 4.
Subjunctive Reasoning The Linguistic Approach The 'Possible Worlds' Approach Conclusions Notes
II. FOUR KINDS OF CONDITIONALS
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Introduction The Four Kinds 'Even if' Subjunctives 'Might Be' Conditionals Necessitation Conditionals Simple Subjunctives The Axiomatization of Simple Subjunctives Conclusions Notes
III. SUBJUNCTIVE GENERALIZATIONS
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Introduction Rudiments of an Analysis Strong Generalizations Weak Generalizations Conclusions Notes
IV. THE BASIC ANALYSIS OF SUBJUNCTIVE CONDITIONALS
1. Introduction 2. The Analysis of M 3. Simple Propositions
XI
1 1
4 13
23 24 25 25 25 29 31 33
38 42 44 44
46 46 48 54
62 68 68
70 70 70 91
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VIII
4. Counter-Legal Conditionals 5. Subject Preference Notes V. QUANTIFICATION, MODALITIES, AND CONDITIONALS
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Referential Opacity Transworld Identity Kripke's Observation Quantified Modal Logic Conditionals Notes
VI. THE FULL THEORY
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Syntax Semantics Infinitary Operators The Introduction of Sets Some Consequences of the Analysis Note
VII. CAUSES
1. 2. 3. 4.
Introduction The Ontology of Causes Some Causal Relations Causal Sufficiency 4.1. Nomic Subsumption 4.2. Contingently Sufficient Conditions 4.3. Causal Sufficiency and Subjunctive Conditionals 5. Remarks on the Analysis 6. The Logic of Causes , Notes VIII. PROBABILITIES
1. Introduction 2. Indefinite Probabilities 2.1. Relative Frequencies 2.2. Subjuncti
