Surface deflection-based reliability analysis of asphalt pavement design
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rface deflection-based reliability analysis of asphalt pavement design 1*
2
HUANG Wei , LIANG SiMing & WEI Ya 1
2*
Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2 Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Received June 30, 2019; accepted November 15, 2019; published online January 20, 2020
The surface deflection of asphalt pavement reflects the strength and stiffness of the entire structure, which can be used to evaluate the rutting life of asphalt pavements. However, it is influenced by various stochastic variables including traffic loads, material properties and structural thickness of each pavement course. The uncertainty of above stochastic variables is of significance for accurately predicting the rutting life of asphalt pavement. In this study, the statistical characteristics of stochastic variables of asphalt pavement were assessed based on the field data collected from asphalt pavement projects. A unique formula with a fairly good accuracy was found using multiple linear regression based on numerical simulation results to ease the calculation of pavement deflection during the reliability analysis. It is shown that the stochastic variables of asphalt pavement can be well characterized by normal distribution or logarithmic normal distribution. The regressed formula to calculate the surface deflection of pavement has a fairly good accuracy with an error of less than 6.0% compared to the numerical method. The proposed surface deflection-based reliability analysis can be used easily to evaluate the influence of input parameters on the rutting life and to guide the structure design of asphalt pavement with required reliability. asphalt pavement, surface deflection, rutting life, reliability, regressive model to calculate pavement deflection Citation:
Huang W, Liang S M, Wei Y. Surface deflection-based reliability analysis of asphalt pavement design. Sci China Tech Sci, 2020, 63, https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11431-019-1480-8
1 Introduction Reliability theory of structures [1], which originates from the understanding of uncertainties occurring during the service life of structures, has attracted considerable research attentions in the past few decades due to the fact that it is a promising decision-making method to deal with the uncertainties of structures [2–7]. Although the reliability theory has been widely used in architectural design, civil engineering, and mechanical engineering, its application in designing the transportation infrastructure such as asphalt pavements is relatively less. It is widely accepted that the performance of asphalt pavement structures is influenced by
many factors, which include traffic loads, the mechanical properties, and the structural thickness of each pavement course [8]. The uncertainty of these factors, i.e., the deviation of the measured value from the true value, originates from many sources including the variation of the proportion of asphalt mixtures and the variation of the construction
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