The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Transatlantic Relationship Under Stress
- PDF / 251,666 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 21 Downloads / 143 Views
The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Transatlantic Relationship Under Stress Lora Anne Viola
© The Author(s) 2020
Abstract President Trump has created turmoil in the transatlantic relationship. Biden has taken a conciliatory tone towards allies and promised to return the US to multilateral cooperation as president. But the transatlantic relationship will never return to its heyday. Three long-term trends will shape the future of US foreign policy and the transatlantic relationship: the global shift in the distribution of power, and especially what the US-China rivalry means for Europe; the US’ ambivalence towards multilateralism and why it will likely endure; and changing domestic coalitions within the US that might be a harbinger of a foreign policy revolution. Keywords Transatlantic relationship · US foreign policy · Global power shift · NATO · Digital technology · Progressive foreign policy
Prof. L. A. Viola () John F. Kennedy Institute, Freie Universität Berlin, Lansstr. 7–9, 14195 Berlin, Germany E-Mail: [email protected]
K
L. A. Viola
Die US-Präsidentschaftswahlen 2020 und transatlantische Beziehungen unter Druck Zusammenfassung Präsident Trump sorgt für Unruhe in der transatlantischen Beziehung. Biden äußert sich gegenüber Verbündeten versöhnlich und will die USA als Präsident zur multilateralen Kooperation zurückführen. Doch die transatlantische Partnerschaft wird nie zu ihrer Blüte zurückkehren. Drei Trends werden künftig die US-Außenpolitik und die transatlantische Beziehung prägen: die globale Machtverteilung und die Frage, was die US-China-Rivalität für Europa bedeutet; die Ambivalenz der USA gegenüber Multilateralismus und warum dieser wohl bestehen wird; und die sich wandelnden Koalitionen innerhalb der USA, die Vorboten einer außenpolitischen Revolution sein könnten. Schlüsselwörter Transatlantische Beziehung · US-Außenpolitik · Globale Machtverschiebung · NATO · Digitale Technologie · Progressive Außenpolitik
1 Introduction Called the “Great Disruptor” by supporters, President Trump’s rhetoric and decisions have—true to label—challenged established norms of politics and contributed to political uncertainty (Hicks and Ellis 2018). This uncertainty has been keenly felt in foreign policy, and especially in the transatlantic relationship. From his disparagement of NATO, to his use of punitive tariffs to force concessions, to his contempt for multilateralism, to his willingness to court dictators, Trump’s foreign policy appears to break the mold on long-standing US normative and strategic commitments. There is also no indication that a second term would temper Trump’s foreign policy, as even norm-conforming presidents have historically faced fewer moderating constraints in their second term (Drezner 2012). In light of this, some have pinned their hopes on Joe Biden, arguing that the transatlantic relationship will improve and even be repaired once Trump is out of office (Soros 2020; Colson and Payne 2020); and to be sure, Biden has taken a conciliatory tone towards allies and has promi
Data Loading...
