The CORDEX-Australasia ensemble: evaluation and future projections
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The CORDEX‑Australasia ensemble: evaluation and future projections Jason P. Evans1,2 · Giovanni Di Virgilio1 · Annette L. Hirsch1,2 · Peter Hoffmann3,4 · Armelle Reca Remedio3 · Fei Ji2,5 · Burkhardt Rockel6 · Erika Coppola7 Received: 27 December 2019 / Accepted: 9 September 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract A new regional climate projection ensemble has been created for the Australasia region as part of the World Climate Research Programs Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The CORDEX-Australasia ensemble is the largest regional climate projection ensemble ever created for the region. It is a 20-member ensemble made by 6 regional climate models downscaling 11 global climate models. Overall the ensemble produces a good representation of recent climate. Consistent biases within the ensemble include an underestimation of the diurnal temperature range and an underestimation of precipitation across much of southern Australia. Under a high emissions scenario projected temperature changes by the end of the twenty-first century reach ~ 5 K in the interior of Australia with smaller increases found toward the coast. Projected precipitation changes are towards drying, particularly in the most populated areas of the southwest and southeast of the continent. The projected precipitation change is very seasonal with summer projected to see little change leaning toward an increase. These results provide a foundation enabling future studies of regional climate changes, climate change impacts, and adaptation options for Australia.
1 Introduction
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05459-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Jason P. Evans [email protected] 1
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
2
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
3
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
4
Climate Science Centre-CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia
5
NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Sydney, Australia
6
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
7
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics ICTP, Trieste, Italy
Future changes in global climate are locked in for the next couple of decades. These changes will impact both human and natural systems in different ways depending on the location. Enabling pathways for adaptation is critical for the resilience of these systems to future climate changes. Providing future climate change information at the regional and local scales relevant for adaptation decisions is required to both understand the likely impacts on various systems and the possible adaptation pathways. The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was implemented, as a
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