The Demand Forecasting Method for Repairable Spare Parts Based on Availability
Demand forecasting is an important basis of spare parts management. A demand forecasting method for weapon repairable spare parts based on availability, in which the demand of parts with different demand pattern are estimated by different means, was propo
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The Demand Forecasting Method for Repairable Spare Parts Based on Availability Lianwu Zhang, Fanggeng Zhao, Jiangsheng Sun and Xiaoyan Shi
Abstract Demand forecasting is an important basis of spare parts management. A demand forecasting method for weapon repairable spare parts based on availability, in which the demand of parts with different demand pattern are estimated by different means, was proposed in the paper. The parameter in the method was determined by experiments, and computational results verified the validity of our method.
Keywords Demand forecasting Repairable spare parts method Exponential smoothing
Availability Croston
32.1 Introduction Spare parts are important material basis of equipment support, and they are significant factors to keep and resume the battle effectiveness of weapon equipment. In practice, most of spare parts are repairable. Hence, accurate demand forecasting of repairable spare parts can improve the efficiency and benefit of maintenance support to a great extent. In recent years, literatures about spare parts are mainly focused on the inventory control models. However, without accurate demand forecasting, the inventory models can not performed well [1]. In this paper, a forecasting method for L. Zhang (&) J. Sun Machine Technology Research Institute, 050000 Shijiazhuang, People’s Republic of China e-mail: [email protected] F. Zhao X. Shi Bengbu Automobile Petty Officer School, 233011 Bengbu, People’s Republic of China
W. Lu et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Information Technology and Software Engineering, Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering 211, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-34522-7_32, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
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repairable spare parts demand based on availability, in which the total equipment rather than a single part is considered, was proposed. In the proposed method, the demand forecasting and inventory control problem are combined to provide an effective tool for equipment support people. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 32.2 simply summarizes the literatures of demand forecasting methods for spare parts. Section 32.3 describes the demand forecasting method based on availability, and the results of computational tests are given in Sect. 32.4. Finally, Sect. 32.5 draws the conclusions.
32.2 Related Researches We restrict ourselves in this review to demand forecasting for weapon spare parts. Since 1950s, Rand Corporation began to research the demand forecasting problem for weapon spare parts. Among the early researches, the most representative achievement was due to Feeney and Sherbrooke [2]. In their research, they proposed the Multi-Echelon Technique for Recoverable Item Control (METRIC), and the model can not only be used to forecast the demand of spare part, but also combined the demand forecasting and inventory control problem. Since then, there was no influential research on demand forecasting for weapon spare parts in the following 10 years. I
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