The effect of acute and chronic food shortage on human population equilibrium in a subsistence setting
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Agriculture & Food Security Open Access
RESEARCH
The effect of acute and chronic food shortage on human population equilibrium in a subsistence setting Joshua‑Michael Tomiyama1*, Daisuke Takagi1 and Michael B. Kantar2
Abstract Background : World population is projected to reach 9–11 billion by 2050, raising concerns about food system secu‑ rity and sustainability. Modeling food systems are often a way to understand current and future dynamics. The most common model, first articulated by Malthus (Malthusian), shows population growth as an exponential function and food production as a linear function, concluding that human carrying capacity will be reached leading to mass starva‑ tion. Another prominent model was introduced by Boserup (Boserupian), which explains increases in food production as a function of population growth. Methodology : Here, we explore which food systems dynamics exist at equilibrium and after perturbation. The model introduced explores food availability in an isolated village and then in a line of villages. The isolated village model includes three key parameters: maximum calorie production (a), food production resilience (b), and minimum calorie requirement per person (c). The multiple village model adds an additional parameter for trade. Results : Isolated village populations are more resilient to famine than Malthusian theory predicts, suggesting that Malthus’ premise may be inaccurate. Predictably, across multiple villages increasing access and production reduce famine. However, under certain conditions large amounts of transport can lead to antagonist relationships leading to rapid changes in population. Conclusion : Food systems under both production and access scenarios proved to be resilient to small perturba‑ tions, requiring a large catastrophe to induce mortality; this appeared to discount the Malthusian model. This model can create dynamics where different modes of famine relief apply, but here we see that a balanced approach of both access and production appears to be the most resilient to famine. Keywords: Boserupian, Malthusian, Carrying capacity, Production, Access Background Understanding the limitations of food systems that support human population growth has profound implications for natural resource management and agricultural productivity. Food security means the availability of sufficient food at all times for all people in order to ensure *Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Mathematics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2565 McCarthy Mall, Honolulu, HI, USA Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
an active and healthy life [1, 2], which is a challenge to humanity. It is broadly accepted that food security is a human right (Universal Declaration of Human rights article 25), yet food security is still a major problem worldwide. Food security is maintained when food systems are resilient (responsive to perturbations) to increases in population in addition to instability in production caused by natural disasters (e.g.,
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