The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China Pei-Yu Liu1† , Sha He1† , Li-Bin Rong2 and San-Yi Tang1*
Abstract Background: COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn’t stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic. Methods: We compared Italy’s status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Results: The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic. Conclusions: Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic. Keywords: COVID-19, Cumulative cases, Control measures, Model prediction
*Correspondence: [email protected] † Pei-Yu Liu and Sha He contributed equally to this work. 1 School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, 710119 Xi’an, PR China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indica
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