The Geopolitics of President George W. Bush's Foreign Economic Policy

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The Geopolitics of President George W. Bush’s Foreign Economic Policy Ian Jackson Faculty of Humanities, De Montfort University, Clephan Building, Leicester LE1 9BH, UK. E-mail: [email protected]

What will be the legacy that President George W. Bush bequeaths to his successor in the fields of global trade and finance? In answering this question, the article will analyse the three most crucial international economic issues that the Bush administration has faced during its two terms in office. First, Bush’s policy of trade liberalization will be considered. While the United States has negotiated a significant number of new bilateral and regional trade agreements over the past 7 years, global trade talks remain deadlocked. With increasing protectionist sentiment in evidence in Congress, Bush is unlikely to conclude the Doha Development Round by the time he leaves office in 2009. Second, global trade imbalances partly caused by the US current account deficit threaten the stability of international financial markets and global prosperity. The article concludes that the US has pursued a policy of ‘begin neglect’ towards the problem and needs to act more proactively to prevent a hard landing for the American and world economies. Finally, the economic relationship between the US and China is examined. The article argues that the United States needs to continue to engage China in the interests of global economic growth and regional stability in Southeast Asia while avoiding a trade conflict. International Politics (2007) 44, 572–595. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800207 Keywords: Doha; George W. Bush; trade; economic growth; trade imbalances; financial markets

Introduction At the root of American power in the post-Cold War era is the unprecedented economic strength of the United States. For over a century the US economy has been the largest in the world (Walt, 2005, 32–33). After the Second World War the United States enjoyed a preponderance of economic, military and political power over its rivals in the international system (Leffler, 2002, 15–19). While the gap in economic power has narrowed considerably between the United States and Western Europe and Japan during the past four decades, Washington has been the architect and primary beneficiary of global interdependence. The United States has been the driving force behind

Ian Jackson Geopolitics of President George W. Bush’s Foreign Economic Policy

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globalization and the world’s leader in technological innovation (Kissinger, 2001, 211). With an $11 trillion stake in the international economy, 20% of global output and the destination for 18% of the world’s imports, the American economy is the engine of world growth and the barometer of global prosperity (Haass, 2005, 8–9). Since 1944, the dollar has been the world’s foremost reserve currency and the most widely used medium of exchange in international finance accounting for two-thirds of all transactions. American economic might underpins the global military presence of Washington across the international system. The fe