The role of host phenology for parasite transmission
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ORIGINAL PAPER
The role of host phenology for parasite transmission Hannelore MacDonald1 · Erol Akçay1 · Dustin Brisson1 Received: 1 April 2020 / Accepted: 20 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite. Keywords Disease ecology · Parasite · Seasonality · Phenology · Lyme disease · Epidemiology
Introduction Behaviors or traits that vary seasonally, termed phenology in the ecological literature, impact both the type and strength of ecological interactions within populations and communities (Miller-Rushing et al. 2010; Bewick et al. 2016; Paull and Johnson 2014; Barber et al. 2016; Burkett-Cadena et al. 2011). For example, seasonal matching between flowering times and pollinator activity periods is a key driver of short- and long-term population dynamics of both plants and insects (Cleland et al. 2007; Gaku et al. 2004; Inouye 2008; Kudo and Ida 2013; Memmott et al. 2007; Hegland et al. 2009). Differences in the seasonal activities of interacting species over time or geography, caused by changes in climatic and environmental features, can result in population extinctions and in population explosions (Cahill et al. 2013; Johnson et al. 2010; Washburn and Cornell 1981; Powell and Bentz 2009; Jepsen et al. 2009; van Asch and Visser 2007; Jepsen et al. 2008). Although the majority of studies focus on the phenology of plants and their interacting species, the seasonal activity of hosts or disease vectors is also * Hannelore MacDonald [email protected] 1
likely to have large impacts on the population dynamics of infectious microbes. The impact of phenology on disease transmission dynamics can be prominent in disease systems involving multiple host species or life stages because the seasonal match or mismatch of activities between species or stages will determine the frequency and type of pathogen transmission. For instance, consider the cestode Schistocephalus solidus that infects young three-spined stickle
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