Transportation Costs
Developments in transportation intensify effectivity of individual sectors of the economy. Beside freight transport, transportation has a high impact on labor mobility which is directly embedded in economic conditions not only in the private but also in t
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Transportation Costs
Developments in transportation intensify effectivity of individual sectors of the economy. Beside freight transport, transportation has a high impact on labor mobility which is directly embedded in economic conditions not only in the private but also in the enterprising sphere. On the other side, economic development depends on engineering sciences, because technology forms the frame conditions of global transportation.
16.1 Tendencies of Fuel Supply The transportation especially strictly depends on production conditions of the oil industry. Strategy in fuel production has to be considered in transportation planning [1]. Since 1980, the discrepancy between oil production and new discoveries has increased (see Fig. 16.1). The linear extrapolation of the recent fuel consumption of approximately 4,700 9 106 t i.e., 10,362 9 109 lb per year predicts an increase to approximately 5,000 9 106–6,000 9 106 t i.e., 11,023 9 109–13,228 9 109 lb per year in world oil consumption in the next years. This tendency should lead to the consumption of the half of all oil reserves on the Earth by 2030. The total CO2 emissions would probably grow from the current level of 14,000 9 106–16,000 9 106 t i.e., 30,867 9 109–35,276 9 109 CO2 per year to approximately 25,000 9 106– 30,000 9 106 t i.e., 55,119 9 109–66,143 9 109 lb per year in 2030 [2].
16.2 Prices of Fuels The costs of fuels are very unevenly distributed on the Earth (see Fig. 16.2). Unbraked development would require lower fossil fuel prices on the world [3]. Apart from single processes, the global growing tendencies in fuel price level are
M. Palocz-Andresen, Decreasing Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Gas Emissions in Transportation, Green Energy and Technology, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-11976-7_16, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
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16 Transportation Costs
6 oil [10 barrel*day-1]
110 100 90
need of mineral oil
80
production of mineral oil
70 60 50 40 2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Fig. 16.1 Discrepancy between oil production and new discoveries
180
140
-1
price [cent*litre ]
160
120 100 80 60 40
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
China
USA
Russia
India
South Africa
Canada
Australia
Brasil
Singapore
Spain
France
Germany
0
Norway
20
Fig. 16.2 Price of petrol in 2010
very similar. The example of Germany shows the typical changes in the price of fuel in the last decades (see Fig. 16.3). An acceptable petrol reduction can be achieved by using pure biogenic fuels of the first generation, such as alcohols and FAME, but at a substantially higher cost level than consuming conventional fuels (see Fig. 16.4) [4]. Second-generation biogenic fuels promise to be cheaper but the technology is still under development and only a few countries such as Brazil use them. The amount of fuel that can be produced is limited by the amount of crops that can be grown. Biogenic fuels can be produced at lower prices in the future. In the long term, the most economic solution is the production of BTL, but it requires new innovat
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