Tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction since 1766 ce in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, arid Central Asia
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction since 1766 CE in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, arid Central Asia Zhengbing Peng 1,2 & Li Qin 1 & Xinjian Li 1 & Heli Zhang 1 & Youping Chen 1,2 & Rui Liu 1,2 & Ruibo Zhang 1 Received: 9 December 2019 / Accepted: 10 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Knowledge of past climatic variability in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of arid Central Asia is still limited due to the lack of long-term instrumental data. In this study, we develop a March–August mean temperature reconstruction since 1766 CE based on annual tree-ring widths of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.). The reconstruction accounts for 51.8% of the temperature variation during the calibration period (1957–2017). Over the last two and a half centuries, the region has experienced six warm periods, namely 1766–1792, 1803–1827, 1878–1886, 1904–1916, 1926–1935, and 1982–2015. The reconstruction also indicates the occurrence of two significant cold periods, 1821–1857 and 1931–1980. Over the past 252 years, the climate in this region has shifted between warm-dry and cold-wet periods. However, a strong warm-wet trend since the 1980s is evident. There is a strong positive correlation between the tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as a close relationship with strong volcanic eruptions in the mid-high latitudes. Keywords Tree rings . Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) . Temperature reconstruction . Eastern Tianshan Mountains . Arid Central Asia
1 Introduction According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean global surface temperature has increased 0.85 °C (0.65–1.06 °C) over the last hundred years. Between 1951 and 2012, it increased to 0.12 °C/10a (0.08–0.14 °C/10a), an increase that is about twice as much as the increase since 1880. Climate change strongly affects ecological and socialeconomic systems (Houghton 2004), so it is imperative to understand the mechanisms of climate change in a given
* Li Qin [email protected] * Xinjian Li [email protected] 1
Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region/Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
2
College of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China
region. However, to understand long-term trends in climate, we need long-term records of climatic parameters, which are lacking in most parts of the world. Paleoclimatic proxies such as tree rings provide a means of extending the climate record into the past. Tree rings in many parts of the world can be accurately dated and provide long time series, strong continuity, wide spatial distribution, high resolution, and sensitivity to climate change. As a result, tree rings have become widely used proxies for studying paleoclimate change (Brif
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