Trends in the incidence of diabetes mellitus: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 and implications for
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Trends in the incidence of diabetes mellitus: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 and implications for diabetes mellitus prevention Jinli Liu1, Zhen-Hu Ren2, Hua Qiang3, Jine Wu3, Mingwang Shen1, Lei Zhang1,4,5,6*† and Jun Lyu1,7*†
Abstract Backgroud: Diabetes mellitus is a common chronic disease and a severe public health issue. The incidence trends for type 1 diabetes (TIDM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) have rarely been studied on a global scale. We aimed to determine the temporal and geographical trends of diabetes globally. Methods: Data on diabetes mellitus, including incidence, prevalence from 1990 to 2017 were obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in agestandardized incidence rate (ASIR) of diabetes mellitus according to sex, region, and disease type. Results: The worldwide incident cases of diabetes mellitus has increased by 102.9% from 11,303,084 cases in 1990 to 22,935,630 cases in 2017 worldwide, while the ASIR increased from 234 /100,000 persons (95% UI, 219–249) to 285/100,000 persons (95% UI, 262–310) in this period [EAPC = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.79–0.96]. The global ASIRs of T1DM and T2DM both demonstrated significant increase during 1990–2017, with EAPCs of 0.34 (95% CI,0.30–0.39) and 0.89 (95% CI,0.80–0.97), respectively. The ASIR trends also varied considerably by regions and countries. The increase in ASIR was greatest in high sociodemographic index regions (EAPC = 1.05, 95% CI:0.92–1.17) and lowest in low-SDI regions (EAPC = 0.79, 95% CI:0.71–0.88). Conclusions: Both the number of incident cases and ASIR of diabetes mellitus increased significantly during 1990– 2017 worldwide, but the temporal trends varied markedly across regions and countries. Keywords: Global diabetes mellitus, Incidence, Trends, Prevention
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] Lei Zhang and Jun Lyu contribute to supervision equally 1 China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of
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