Uncertainties in solar radiation assessment in the United States using climate models
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Uncertainties in solar radiation assessment in the United States using climate models Liang Chen1 Received: 20 August 2019 / Accepted: 9 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Solar energy is abundant and offers significant potential for future climate change mitigation. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on surface solar radiation in the United States using a set of climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs). Multi-model ensemble mean of GCMs in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a significant increase in annual mean surface solar radiation over the eastern and southern US. The projected solar brightening is consistent among different future periods and pathways. However, RCMs in North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) and convection-permitting simulations of the climate of North America exhibit a significant decrease in surface solar radiation over large areas of the US. Those conflicting responses between the GCMs and RCMs are evident throughout the year with the greatest disagreement during fall. When scrutinizing the mechanism of solar radiation changes, we find that cloud behavior alone cannot adequately explain the contrasting changes in solar radiation. Instead, if a climate model considers transient aerosols is the key for solar brightening or dimming. Future solar brightening is mainly associated with the declining aerosols that have been implemented in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. In contrast, solar dimming becomes evident because of the greenhouse gas effects in those GCMs and RCMs without considering the aerosol effects. This study highlights the importance of the aerosol effects in solar energy-related climate assessment, and it is necessary to implement the aerosol forcing in regional climate downscaling. Keywords Surface solar radiation · CMIP5 projections · NA-CORDEX · Convection-permitting WRF · Aerosols
1 Introduction To meet the rapidly growing energy demand and achieve a carbon-free future for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy has become an increasingly attractive resource. Solar energy is the most abundant of all energy resources (Arvizu et al. 2011), and an integral part of different renewable energy resources (Sen 2008). Direct solar energy technologies have harnessed solar radiation reaching Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05498-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Liang Chen [email protected] 1
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Section, Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign, 2204 Griffith Drive, Champaign, IL 61820, USA
the Earth’s surface to generate electricity using photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP), to produce thermal energy, to meet direct lighting needs, and to produce fuels that might b
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