Understanding the climate change impact on crop yield over Eastern Himalayan Region: ascertaining GCM and scenario uncer
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Understanding the climate change impact on crop yield over Eastern Himalayan Region: ascertaining GCM and scenario uncertainty Jew Das 1 & Vikas Poonia 1 & Srinidhi Jha 1 & Manish Kumar Goyal 1 Received: 30 January 2020 / Accepted: 14 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract It is well established that the adverse impact of climate change is going to affect every aspect of the ecosystem in the hilly terrain of the Himalayan region. Therefore, it is inevitable to assess the climate change impact on crop yield over the hilly terrain to undertake sustainable adaptation and agricultural practices. In the present study, Sikkim is considered as a study area, and crop simulation for three different crops (rice, wheat and maize) is carried out using calibrated AquaCrop with an available baseline dataset of 17 years (1998–2015). The future projections of different crop yields are obtained by using bias-corrected climate scenarios from four different global climate models (GCMs) under two different emission scenarios. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with the GCM and emission scenario is examined through the possibility theory. The outcomes from the simulations indicate an increase in the mean percentage change in the yield (0.5% to 20% for rice, 2% to 44% for wheat and 10% to 25% for maize) over Sikkim during 2021–2099. The increase in the mean yield can be attributed to the suitable temperature profile, increase in the CO2 concentration, high elevation of the study area and no significant water stress during the growing seasons of different crops and using the possibility approach indicates that during the recent past (2006–2015), the stabilized scenario is prevailing over the high emission scenarios in most of the cases. Our results facilitate the water and agricultural manager for considering proper and robust adaptation measures to ensure sustainability.
1 Introduction With the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, climate change has emerged as a paramount concern worldwide in the context of socioeconomic and environmental sustainability. Subsequently, climate change is stressing ecosystems of the earth, including water cycles, agricultural and natural products, sea levels and the abundance of flora and fauna (Simonovic 2017). Moreover, the increase in the greenhouse gases exaggerates the extreme weather patterns, which in turn increases the magnitude and frequency of flood and drought events (Das and Umamahesh 2017) . Since the industrial revolution in the late nineteenth century, the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have been increasing, and Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03332-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Jew Das [email protected] 1
Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India
it is expected that the concentration is going to be doubled by the year 2056 (Simonovic 2017).
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