Future changes in rice yield over Kerala using climate change scenario from high resolution global climate model project
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Indian Academy of Sciences (0123456789().,-volV)(0123456789( ).,-volV)
Future changes in rice yield over Kerala using climate change scenario from high resolution global climate model projection STELLA JES VARGHESE1,2,* , SAJANI SURENDRAN1,2, B AJITHKUMAR3, KAVIRAJAN RAJENDRAN1,2 and AKIO KITOH4 1 Multi-Scale Modelling Programme, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore 560 2 Academy of ScientiBc and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad 201 002, India. 3 College of Horticulture, Kerala Agricultural University, Vellanikkara, India. 4
037, India.
Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan. *Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected]
MS received 17 January 2020; revised 1 June 2020; accepted 10 June 2020
The impact of climate change on agricultural yield is one amongst the major concerns the world is witnessing. Our study focusses on rice yield prediction for an agricultural research station in Kerala with the help of climate change scenario input from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Global Climate Model (GCM) projection under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We have used Cropping System Model (CSM) Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) Rice within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) package for predicting the yield. Our study has the novelty of using very high-resolution climate data from a model which is highly skilful in capturing the present-day climate features and climatic trends over India (in particular, over the Western Ghats), as input for simulating the future crop yield. From this study, we Bnd that the rice yield decreases due to rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall, thereby reducing the crops maturity time in the future. Based on our results, the adaptation measures suggested to achieve better yield under future warming conditions are: (i) to opt for alternative rice varieties which have tolerance to high temperatures and consume less water, and (ii) shifting of planting date to the most appropriate window. Keywords. Global Climate Model; climate change; cropping system model; rice yield; adaptation measures.
1. Introduction Study on climate alone would appear surreal without realising the value of science in climate simulations for which a quantitative assessment of climate’s impact is required (Gadgil and Gadgil 2006). A change in the natural climate is due to change in earth’s revolution, variation in solar insolation and other natural factors. But over the last few years, a dramatic change in daily weather
has been noted. This is deemed to be by human inCuence, where greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere at an alarming rate by burning forests, grasslands and fossil fuels. The eAect of climate change invariably aAects the agricultural yield due to change in climate variables which are most responsible for the growth and development of crop. The population of the world is expected to rise to 8.3 billion by 2030 and 9.1 billion by 2050. Global
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