Using Bayesian methods and simulator data to model lifeboat coxswain performance
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Using Bayesian methods and simulator data to model lifeboat coxswain performance Randy Billard 1 & Mashrura Musharraf 2 & Brian Veitch 2 & Jennifer Smith 3 Received: 20 March 2020 / Accepted: 27 May 2020/ # World Maritime University 2020
Abstract Lifeboat training is normally performed in controlled conditions to minimize the risk to trainees and equipment. Participants are given limited or no opportunity to practice skills in operational scenarios that represent offshore emergencies. For this reason, human performance in plausible emergencies is difficult to predict due to the limited data that is available. Simulation provides a means to collect novel data on human performance and learning in situations that are otherwise prohibitive due to risk. In this study, we use simulator data to shape knowledge of the problem space of lifeboat coxswain training and skill transfer. We use Bayesian inference to produce human performance probabilities (HPPs) to model the performance of lifeboat coxswains as they practice lifeboat tasks for the first time. Data collected in an experiment are used (1) to generate probability distributions to predict the amount of practice needed for new coxswains to achieve competence on lifeboat launching and maneuvering tasks, (2) to study how skills learned in training transfer to a new scenario, and (3) to make comparisons between task difficulty. The methodology can be applied to other problems to assess training effectiveness and improve instructional design. Models can be continuously strengthened with additional data to improve predictive accuracy. Probability distributions can be used to assess competence in new scenarios and to diagnose strengths and weaknesses using machine learning. Keywords Simulation . Lifeboat . Emergency . Training
* Randy Billard [email protected] Mashrura Musharraf [email protected] Brian Veitch [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Billard et al.
1 Introduction Lifeboat operators are required to have the skills to launch and operate a lifeboat in environmental conditions that prevail in their location of operation. Although operators may experience challenging conditions in a real emergency, initial training is normally conducted in calm waters to minimize the risk to trainees and equipment. Training typically includes a combination of lectures, demonstrations, and group practice sessions. Competence is normally assessed based on the trainee’s ability to demonstrate completion of tasks trained individually in course curriculum. Practice drills following training are performed in calm water and involve launching the lifeboat and simple maneuvering tasks to refamiliarize trainees with the operation of the lifeboat (International Maritime Organization 2014). It is assumed that skills acquired in training can be transferred to more difficult scenarios, such as emergencies involving a lifeboat in adverse weather. Industry studies have identified that benchmarking of lifeboat coxswain skill
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