Will metal scarcity impede routine industrial use?
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Will metal scarcity impede routine industrial use? T.E. Graedel and Lorenz Erdmann Materials scientists today employ essentially the entire periodic table in creating modern technology. In an age of sharply increasing usage, it is reasonable to wonder about the supplies of these elemental building blocks. In this article, we review current and prospective supply and demand for a variety of metals. Although data are often sparse, available information suggests that current practices are likely to lead to scarcity for some metals in the not-too-distant future. We conclude by discussing policies that, if adopted, might defuse some of these concerns.
The dynamism of metal extraction and use As recently as 20 or 30 years ago, designers of most manufactured products drew from a palette of a dozen or so metals. That situation has changed remarkably, as modern technology employs virtually the entire periodic table. A few examples illustrate this point: turbine-blade alloys and coatings make use of more than a dozen metals;1 thousands of components are assembled into a single notebook computer; and medical equipment, medical diagnostics, and other high-level technological products incorporate more than 70 metals.2 This transformation is the result of the continuing search for better materials performance. To improve operational characteristics, 60 or so metals are incorporated into each microchip,3 and microchips are increasingly embedded into industrial plants, means of transportation, building equipment and appliances, consumer products, and other devices.4 It is thus increasingly important to determine whether reliable supplies of all of these metals are available, because a product designer might wish to employ a material that is not available in sufficient quantity or at a suitable price when it is needed.5 During the Industrial Revolution, vast metal deposits became accessible. Since then, wars or cartels have occasionally disrupted supplies for short periods, but the markets have always been restored over time. More recently, however, challenges to medium- or long-term supplies of a number of metals6,7 have led to increasing unease. This state of mind was reinforced in
2011 by a committee of the American Physical Society and the Materials Research Society that identified several elements, including 10 rare earth elements, as potentially critical for energy-related technologies.8 Metals, in particular, are being extracted at increasing rates (Figure 1), and end-of-life recycling rates for many of them are low to dismal.10 Moreover, for products with long service lifetimes such as turbine generators or high-speed locomotives, a stable set of materials must be available for maintenance and repair over several decades. It is therefore reasonable to ask: “Will supplies of any materials run out? If so, what and when?” In this article, we explore these questions by examining the present state of metal supply and demand, reviewing various studies of future needs, and then addressing potential limitations in response to those n
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