Zebra mussel invasion of Texas lakes: estimating dispersal potential via boats
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Zebra mussel invasion of Texas lakes: estimating dispersal potential via boats Josi J. Robertson . Todd M. Swannack . Monica McGarrity . Astrid N. Schwalb
Received: 1 August 2019 / Accepted: 13 August 2020 Ó Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) pose both a significant economic and environmental threat to aquatic systems yet there are currently no effective methods for achieving largescale eradication. As a result, predicting and preventing their spread play a critical role in management efforts. Zebra mussels were first found in Texas in 2009 and, as of November 2019, have invaded 39 lakes across five river basins. Prior state-specific riskassessments have been solely based on habitat suitability and have not considered dispersal potential. We developed a water body specific, constrained gravity model incorporating habitat suitability and dispersal potential to predict potential future invasion patterns. We examined the relative importance of habitat suitability, lake attractiveness, the relative risk of different boater types, and the impact of boater
compliance with recommended prevention measures. Differences in lake attractiveness resulted in different boater dispersal patterns but the impact on projected lake invasions were reduced by variation in habitat suitability. The model projected zebra mussels to be mainly limited by habitat conditions in east Texas and by dispersal in west Texas. Most lakes in central Texas were projected to become invaded in the near future unless boater compliance with preventive management was high. Keywords Constrained gravity model Habitat suitability Human-meditated dispersal Invasive species Recreational boats Dispersal vectors
Introduction J. J. Robertson A. N. Schwalb (&) Biology Department, Texas State University, 601 University Dr., San Marcos, TX 78666, USA e-mail: [email protected] T. M. Swannack US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA e-mail: [email protected] M. McGarrity Inland Fisheries Division, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, 4200 Smith School Road, Austin, TX 78744, USA e-mail: [email protected]
One of the most widespread and problematic aquatic invasive species in North America is the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha. The establishment of zebra mussels—and their congener, the quagga mussel, D. bugensis—has been implicated in substantial ecosystem changes including increased water clarity, modification of nutrient cycling, alteration of benthic community composition, and decline in native unionid mussel populations (Strayer 2009; Higgins and Vander Zanden 2010). These invasive mussels exert significant economic impacts as they infiltrate,
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damage infrastructure, and even block the flow of water through intake pipes of any facility using raw surface water. The North American invasion of Dreissena spp. has resulted in an estimated $1 bi
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