A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis
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A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi‑hazard risk analysis Jiajun Wang1,2 · Zhichao He1,2 · Wenguo Weng1,2 Received: 24 February 2020 / Accepted: 21 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract With the development of disaster-risk research, it has been found that many areas are prone to the simultaneous occurrence of natural disasters and technological accidents. Such events are known as “multi-hazard.” Increasing attention has been paid to multi-hazard risk, and the theory and methods of multi-hazard risk analysis have been put forward and applied in some areas. Compared with single-hazard risk analysis, multi-hazard risk analysis is more complex and challenging. Researchers typically focus on the characteristics of specific multi-hazard scenarios. However, when multiple hazards occur simultaneously, the relationship between them may be complex. At present, there are still many confusing descriptions of the relationship between hazards, and there are also differences in the research methods for different multi-hazard scenarios. This paper clarifies the relationship between hazards in multi-hazard scenarios by dividing them into three categories: mutually amplified hazards, mutually exclusive hazards, and non-influential hazards. A series of risk analysis methods have been reviewed for different hazard relationships (e.g., Natech events, human-induced hazards, disaster chains, the domino effect, and concurrent hazards), and possible challenges and solutions have been put forward. Keywords Multi-hazard risk · Natural disaster · Technological accident · Relations of hazards
* Wenguo Weng [email protected] Jiajun Wang wang‑[email protected] Zhichao He [email protected] 1
Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, China
2
Beijing Key Laboratory of Comprehensive Emergency Response Science, Beijing, China
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction As global problems such as climate change, population growth, and resource shortage have emerged, the living environment of human beings is facing increasingly severe challenges. In addition to the increased frequency of hazards, their impact on human society is growing and has become one of main social problems. The key to reducing these threats is the comprehensive consideration and analysis of all relevant hazards. Many areas are prone to multiple hazards occurring simultaneously, which is a phenomenon that is widely described as “multi-hazard” (Kappes 2011; Kappes et al. 2012). The concept of “multi-hazard” first appeared in the United Nations’ Agenda 21 for sustainable development (UNEP 1992), which argued that “complete multi-hazard research into risk and vulnerability of human settlements and settlement infrastructure including water and sewerage was needed.” Since then, the Johannesburg Plan (UN 2002) and the Hyogo Framework for Action (UN-ISDR 2005) have put forward relevant perspectives of the “multi-hazard” concept. H
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