Adaptation, calibration and evaluation of a simple agrometeorological model for wood Eucalyptus productivity estimation
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Adaptation, calibration and evaluation of a simple agrometeorological model for wood Eucalyptus productivity estimation Cleverson H. Freitas1 · Elvis F. Elli1 · Paulo C. Sentelhas1 · Rafaela L. Carneiro2 · Clayton A. Alvares3 Received: 9 May 2019 / Revised: 5 March 2020 / Accepted: 11 April 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The Agroecological Zone Model-FAO (AZM) makes use of a physiological basis to estimate the potential productivity (Y p) and an empirical approach to simulate the effect of water deficit on attainable productivity (Ya). The Eucalyptus genus is the most planted in Brazil, with approximately six million hectares, commanding immense economic relevance for the country. Considering the importance of this forest species and the influence that weather conditions have on its growth, the aim of this study was to adapt, calibrate and evaluate the AZM to estimate Eucalyptus productivity for eight Brazilian clones. To accomplish this, forest inventory data from 23 trials and eight Eucalyptus clones (classified as plastic, tropical and subtropical) were obtained from different growing regions in Brazil, from 2011 to 2017. The calibration and adaptation of the model resulted in a significant improvement of its performance. The root-mean-square error was approximately 110 m3 ha−1 when not calibrated and 39 m3 ha−1 after calibration. The calibration also improved precision, with R2 going from 0.73 to 0.82, accuracy, with d index increasing from 0.70 to 0.93, and confidence, with c index going from weak (c = 0.59) to very good (c = 0.84). During the evaluation of the model with independent data, its performance was classified as great (c = 0.87). The AZM, adapted to the Eucalyptus forest, presented satisfactory performance for estimating Eucalyptus wood volume per hectare, representing a useful tool for all players in the forest sector. Keywords Simulation models · Potential productivity · Attainable productivity · Calibration · Water deficit · Frost effect · Tree mortality
Introduction
Communicated by David Drew. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-020-01283-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Paulo C. Sentelhas [email protected] 1
Department of Biosystems Engineering, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, Piracicaba, SP 13.418‑900, Brazil
2
Forestry Science and Research Institute (IPEF), Via Comendador Pedro Morganti, 3500, Piracicaba, SP 13.400‑970, Brazil
3
Suzano SA, Av. Dr. José Lembo, 1010, Itapetininga, SP 18.207‑780, Brazil
The growth and productivity models of forest systems are tools that couple the effects of environmental and management factors, allowing for the development of several studies aimed at understanding the performance of planted forests under different soil and climatic conditions, assisting in planning and decision making on the forest sector (Almeida et al. 2010; Jones et al. 2003;
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