Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network E. Gutiérrez-Moya 1 & B. Adenso-Díaz 2 & S. Lozano 1 Received: 17 May 2019 / Accepted: 30 October 2020 # International Society for Plant Pathology and Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world’s population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009–2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country’s dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market. Keywords Global wheat trade . Complex network analysis . Supply shocks . Food crises . Vulnerability
1 Introduction Historically, wheat has been the basic crop in western countries. In fact, today it is the third largest produced cereal (after rice and corn) and the second largest (after rice) for human consumption worldwide (FAO, 2018). Regarding the calorific content of the human diet, wheat represents the highest percentage of calories (20.4% according to data of 2009, D’Odorico et al., 2014). For this reason, everything related to its production and trade is of paramount importance to millions of people who have wheat as their basic daily sustenance.
* E. Gutiérrez-Moya [email protected] B. Adenso-Díaz [email protected] S. Lozano [email protected] 1
Department of Industrial Management, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
2
Engineering School, Campus Gijón, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
As the world population grows and the demand for bio fuels increase, the price of wheat has risen dramatically for some time. In addition, periodic cases of adverse weather conditions have meant that not only is it more expensive for countries to buy the required wheat, but in some cases there have been shortages, generating political instability in various parts of the world. The social movements in Northern Africa and East Asia (the so-called “Arab Spring”) confirm this statement, changing the geopolitical reality in those regions as a result of a heat wave affecting production in Russia (d’Amour et al., 2016). Unfortunately, this variab
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