Analyzing drought history using Fuzzy Integrated Drought Index (FIDI): a case study in the Neyshabour basin, Iran
- PDF / 1,450,865 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 73 Downloads / 211 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
Analyzing drought history using Fuzzy Integrated Drought Index (FIDI): a case study in the Neyshabour basin, Iran Aida Hashemi Nasab 1 & Hossein Ansary 1 & Seyed Hossein Sanaei-Nejad 1 Received: 21 February 2018 / Accepted: 11 June 2018 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2018
Abstract In arid to semi-arid climates, monitoring drought is very complicated because of different hydrometeorology variables effect on it. It is proposed in this paper to develop Fuzzy Integrated Drought Index (FIDI) which combines most important effective factors in developing drought. At first, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model calibrated simulated runoff to outlet basin runoff data for years 1993–1995. Results represent high performance of model in simulating runoff of outlet basin. Then, Precipitation Anomaly Percentage Index (PAPI), actual Evapotranspiration Anomaly Percentage Index (EAPI), Runoff Anomaly Percentage Index (RAPI), and Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI) were constructed. FIDI was compared with the PAPI, RAPI and SMAPI for the period of 1985 to 2014. The results indicate that (1) the FIDI has more ability in determining start and persistence of drought event compared with PAPI, RAPI, and SMAPI; (2) in the low time scales, PAPI and SMAPI have high correlation with FIDI, and in the higher time scales, RAPI has the high correlation with FIDI; (3) spatially, the middle, west, and portion of north have higher drought risk in the Neyshabour basin. Keywords Drought . Fuzzy model . Fuzzy Integrated Drought Index . The Neyshabour basin
Introduction Drought has been one of the major damaging phenomena in most parts of the world. Iran with arid to semi-arid climate has experienced it often. Thus, there is a need for developing a system to quantify, monitor, and predict droughts (Mishra and Singh 2011). However, given the wide variety of sectors affected by drought and its diverse geographical and temporal distribution, it is difficult to develop a single, precise definition for drought (Rajsekhar et al. 2015). Drought indices are the best methods which can monitor drought in a proper way. Precipitation data are convenient to access in most regions of the world, so indices based on
* Hossein Ansary [email protected] Aida Hashemi Nasab [email protected] Seyed Hossein Sanaei-Nejad [email protected] 1
College of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
precipitation have been recommended in recent hydrological studies. However, the meteorological indices mainly consider the influence of precipitation on drought over a period of time, so they have certain limitations reflecting the spatio-temporal variation of drought, and the research time scale tends to be large, usually on the monthly scale (Mao et al. 2017). Therefore, much attention was paid to use other variables affecting the drought. However, the application of drought index based on soil moisture content is limited, because it is difficult to measure soil water content, spatially in situ (Cristi et al. 2016) like ru
Data Loading...
