Hydroclimatic aggregate drought index (HADI): a new approach for identification and categorization of drought in cold cl
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Hydroclimatic aggregate drought index (HADI): a new approach for identification and categorization of drought in cold climate regions Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar1 • Jianglong Zhang2 • Xuefeng Chu1 Accepted: 29 August 2020 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Drought identification is crucial to water resources management and planning. Different drought indices have been developed and their complexity and applicability vary. The objectives of this research are to develop a new integrated drought index with the capability of identification of drought and to further customize drought categorization for cold climate regions. Specifically, a new hydroclimatic aggregate drought index (HADI) is developed by coupling with a gridbased hydrologic model and applying the R-mode correlation-based principal component analysis. The HADI is a composite drought index, which assesses the anomalies of rainfall, surface runoff, snowmelt, and soil moisture in the root zone. Furthermore, joint probability distribution function of drought frequencies and classes as well as conditional expectation are used for drought categorization. The HADI was applied to the Red River of the North Basin (RRB) and its performance was evaluated by comparing with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) products. Based on the impacts of drought on agriculture, the HADI outperformed the PDSI in identification of droughts in the RRB. Although the HADI and USDM showed a good agreement in identification of drought periods, the drought area coverages for each drought category from the two methods differed. The new customized drought categorization based on variable threshold levels accounted for the variations in both time and geographical locations. The new HADI, together with the customized drought categorization, is able to provide more accurate drought identification and characterization, especially for cold climate regions. Keywords Drought identification Drought index Drought categorization Cold climate regions Variable threshold levels
1 Introduction Drought has many definitions due to its complex nature; however, there is a common phrase in most of them: anomaly or deviation from a normal condition (Palmer 1965). There has been a continuing negotiation on determination of such a normal condition in different places and time periods because of the diversity in climates. For
& Xuefeng Chu [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, North Dakota State University, PO Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108-6050, USA
2
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of North Dakota, 4149 University Ave, Stop 9006, Grand Forks, ND 58202-9006, USA
example, normal conditions in cold regions are substantially different from those in other regions. Therefore, in each region, the first and the most important step in identification of drought is recognition of the drought mechanism (Staudinger et al. 2014). Figure 1 shows the interactions of different varia
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