Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province, Pakistan
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Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province, Pakistan Syeda Maria Ali1 · Bushra Khalid2,3,4,5 · Asma Akhter6 · Aneeza Islam1 · Shahzada Adnan7 Received: 19 April 2018 / Accepted: 30 May 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are immensely changing throughout the world. This study aims to give insight into the changing climatic patterns leading to severe flood and drought conditions in the interior of Punjab province of Pakistan and devise adaptation strategies for risk governance. Landsat TM 30 m imagery was processed for flood analysis, while for drought analysis, Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) were calculated from MODIS (MOD11A2 and MOD13A2) imageries. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted to prepare a management plan based on views of experts and local communities. The main regions affected by extreme events (flood and drought) in interior Punjab were Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Mianwali, Multan, Sargodha, and Rahim Yar Khan. Supervised classification shows flooding in the Mianwali district during August 2010, and TVDI values show that drought prevailed during the year 2000 in the Bahawalpur district. Annual precipitation showed a significant trend in Sargodha and Mianwali with the magnitude of 6.95 mm/year and 2.97 mm/year, respectively. However, SPI moves to positive in the case of all studied districts except Sargodha where temperature change is 0.6 °C. Climatic analysis and survey show that the people of districts, i.e., Faisalabad, Mianwali, Multan, and Sargodha, were more affected by floods, whereas the people of districts, i.e., Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan, were affected by both flood and drought. Adaptation strategies suggest that the flood water should be conserved which can help farmers in irrigation throughout the year. Keywords Adaptation strategies · Climate change · Land Surface Temperature · Normalized Difference Vegetation Index · Standardized Precipitation Index · Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index
* Syeda Maria Ali [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction The climate of the world appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change may be irreversible and can become more extreme in the future (IPCC 2007). The records of the past 100,000 years show that the climate system has undergone periodic and often extreme shifts. Climate change has affected natural systems across the continents, and a rise of up to 4 °C has been recorded in global mean temperature (IPCC 2014a, b); the future rate of warming will be beyond the pattern of the last 10,000 years (Albritton and MeiraFilho 2001). Impacts from climate-related extremes such as droughts, floods, and cyclones include alteration of ecosystems, damage to settlements and infrastructure, morbidity and mortality, disturbance of f
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