Applying ecosystem services as a framework to analyze the effects of alternative bio-economy scenarios in Nordic catchme
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ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF A GREEN BIO-ECONOMY
Applying ecosystem services as a framework to analyze the effects of alternative bio-economy scenarios in Nordic catchments Jan E. Vermaat
, Bart Immerzeel, Eija Pouta, Artti Juutinen
Received: 29 November 2019 / Revised: 27 December 2019 / Accepted: 12 May 2020
Abstract The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios. Keywords Cascade Final ecosystem services Land use change Shared socio-economic pathways
INTRODUCTION The transition of Nordic societies away from fossil fuel dependence towards a stronger dependence on and a more diversified use of bioresources, particularly those from forestry, is a move towards a state often referred to as ‘the bio-economy’ (Bugge et al. 2016; Eyvindson et al. 2018). Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01348-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Such a future ‘bio-economy’ is inherently uncertain and may proceed along widely contrasting trajectories. It is likely to have profound consequences for land use cover and the intensity of use, and thus for the multiple ways landscapes provide benefits to society (e.g., Nelson et al. 2009; Trivin˜o et al. 2018). The inherent uncertainty of a future bio-economy or any trajectory of societal development is usefully charted with scenarios (Lorenzoni et al. 2000; Busch 2006; O’Neil et al. 2017). Scenarios have become a benchmark tool for projecting contrasting but plausible alternative pathways of development. We will only briefly describe the different scenarios we use for the potentially divergent ways in which a bio-economical change in natural resource exploitation can develop in Nordic landscapes because they are the subject of Rakovic et al. (unpublished results). Catchments are naturally bounded spatial units in the landscape that aggregate into larger river basins, which are the administrative spatial units for water management (Moss 2012). Often, these river basins match only imperfectly with administrative units, but t
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