Can microclimate offer refuge to an upland bird species under climate change?
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Can microclimate offer refuge to an upland bird species under climate change? Dario Massimino . Colin M. Beale . Andrew J. Suggitt . Humphrey Q. P. Crick Nicholas A. Macgregor . Matthew J. Carroll . Ilya M. D. Maclean . James W. Pearce-Higgins
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Received: 12 November 2019 / Accepted: 8 July 2020 Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Context Climate change is a severe threat to biodiversity. Areas with a high variety of microclimates may provide opportunities for species to persist in a changing climate. Objectives Test the extent to which microclimate is an important determinant of the distribution of a widespread upland passerine, the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis, and whether microclimate becomes an
increasingly important determinant of distribution towards the warm edge of the species’ range. Methods We used models of the occurrence of meadow pipits based on data from an extensive survey to identify macroclimate and topographic associations, the latter as proxies of microclimate. We assessed magnitude and direction of the effects of microclimate and whether the magnitude of microclimate effects increases as macroclimate suitability declines.
D. Massimino (&) J. W. Pearce-Higgins British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, UK e-mail: [email protected]
N. A. Macgregor Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK
C. M. Beale A. J. Suggitt Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
M. J. Carroll RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK
A. J. Suggitt I. M. D. Maclean Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK A. J. Suggitt Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 8ST, UK H. Q. P. Crick N. A. Macgregor Natural England, Eastbrook, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8DR, UK
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Landscape Ecol
Results The probability of meadow pipit occurrence is significantly correlated with macroclimate and microclimate. Microclimate accounts for about a third of the variation in occupancy probability and has a stronger effect than macroclimate at all three spatial scales considered. Elevation and topographical wetness index are positively correlated with meadow pipit occurrence, while insolation is negatively correlated. Elevation and macroclimate suitability show a positive interaction, while insolation and macroclimate suitability show a negative interaction. Conclusions Microclimate substantially influences the distribution of the meadow pipit. For high latitude and upland species such as this, suitable areas on cool slopes could form the focus for conservation protection, as these areas are likely to become increasingly utilised and may remain the only locations occupied in otherwise unsuitable climate. Keywords Climate change Meadow pipit Micro
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