Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight
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Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood‑bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter‑element and entropy weight model Hong Lv1 · Xinjian Guan1 · Yu Meng1 Received: 25 September 2018 / Accepted: 8 May 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction. Keywords Vulnerability of urban flood-bearing · Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity · Comprehensive risk · Urbanization process · Sponge city
1 Introduction Floods have been an important global issue in recent years especially urban flood, as it poses growing threats to urban areas (Duan et al. 2016; Liu et al. 2018). Of all weatherrelated disasters over the past 20 years, floods are the most common (47%), affecting 2.3 billion people, and the third largest economic loss (662 billion USD) (CRED and UNISDR 2015). Moreover, low infiltration or storage capacity during high-intensity rainfall can easily trigger flooding, especially in urban areas. With the future changes in urban climate and land use, the risk of urban floods will increase (Hai-Min et al. 2018; Wing et al. 2018). The rapid concentration of buildings and populations generated by * Yu Meng [email protected] 1
School of Water Conservancy Science and Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
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Natural Hazards
the rapid urbanization process will also lead to an increased risk of urban floods (Abdulrazzak et al. 2019). Urban floods are characterized by sudden onset, large peak heights, short forecast periods, and complex temporal and spatial changes (Huong and Pathirana 2013). Research on pre-disaster risk assessment of urban floods is one of the effective ways to mitigate floods (Abebe et al. 2019), and it also provides technical support for the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies. The Urban Flood Risk Evaluation (UFRE) research has attracted worldwide attention. For example, disaster risk reduction project was i
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