Demography and Infrastructure National and Regional Aspects of Demog

Population ageing has been going on for many decades, but population shrinking is a rather new phenomenon. The population of Germany, as in many other countries, has passed a plateau and is currently shrinking. Demographic change is a challenge for infras

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ENVIRONMENT & POLICY VOLUME 51

For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5921

Demography and Infrastructure National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change

Edited by

Tobias Kronenberg Forschungszentrum Jülich, IEF-STE, Jülich, Germany and

Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs Forschungszentrum Jülich, IEF-STE, Jülich, Germany

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Editors Dr. Tobias Kronenberg Forschungszentrum Jülich D-52425 Jülich Germany [email protected]

Dr. Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs Forschungszentrum Jülich D-52425 Jülich Germany [email protected]

ISSN 1383-5130 ISBN 978-94-007-0457-2 e-ISBN 978-94-007-0458-9 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-0458-9 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Cover illustration: Copyright Line: © 2010 JupiterImages Corporation Photo text: Railroad tracks and power lines Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

In late 2009 our highly appreciated colleague Dr. Wolfram Krewitt faded away. With his competence, his friendly insistence, and his distinct sense of humour, he contributed significantly to the evaluation success, the team-building processes, as well as to the outcomes of the project.

Acknowledgement

The InfraDem project started in 2006 following a competition which was announced by the German Helmholtz Association, and an international evaluation process. Our sincere thanks are given to the participating research groups which contributed considerably to the results. Moreover, we thank the Helmholtz Association, for funding the project as part of the “Integrations - und Vernetzungsfond”.

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Contents

1 Introduction to Infrastructure and Demography (InfraDem) . . . . Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs Part I

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The Macroeconomic Perspective

2 The Setting: Demographic Trends and Economic Development in Germany and Two Selected Regions . . . . . . . . Stephan Kühntopf, Thusnelda Tivig, and Robert Stelter

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3 Macroeconomic Conditions for Infrastructure Adaptation to Demographic Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Joachim Geske

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4 Demographically Induced Changes in the Structure of Final Demand and Infrastructure Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tobias Kronenberg

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Part II

Specific Types of Infrastructures

5 Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand . . . . . . . Markus Mehlin, Anne Klein-Hitpaß, and Rita Cyganski 6 The Demand for Air Transport and Consequences for the Airports of Hamburg and Rostock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Hepting, Henry Pak, and Dieter Wilken 7 Impacts on the National Energy System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thomas Pregg