Designing Quantitative Experiments Prediction Analysis
The method of Prediction Analysis is applicable for anyone interested in designing a quantitative experiment. The design phase of an experiment can be broken down into problem dependent design questions (like the type of equipment to use and the experimen
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John Wolberg
Designing Quantitative Experiments Prediction Analysis
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Prof. Emeritus John Wolberg Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Technion – Israel Institute of Technology Haifa, Israel [email protected]
ISBN 978-3-642-11588-2 e-ISBN 978-3-642-11589-9 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-11589-9 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010925034 c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: WMXDesign GmbH, Heidelberg Cover illustration: Original painting (100 cm × 80 cm) by the author and currently in a private collection in Los Angeles Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
For my parents, Sidney and Beatrice Wolberg ז"ל My wife Laurie My children and their families: Beth, Gilad, Yoni and Maya Sassoon David, Pazit and Sheli Wolberg Danny, Iris, Noa, Adi, Liat and Shani Wolberg Tamar, Ronen, Avigail, Aviv and Hila Kimchi
Preface
Early in my career I was given the task of designing a sub-critical nuclear reactor facility that was to be used to perform basic research in the area of reactor physics. We planned to run a series of experiments to determine fundamental parameters related to the distribution of neutrons in such systems. I felt that it was extremely important to understand how the design would impact upon the accuracy of our results and as a result of this requirement I developed a design methodology that I subsequently called prediction analysis. After working with this method for several years and applying it to a variety of different experiments, I wrote a book on the subject. Not surprisingly, it was entitled Prediction Analysis and was published by Van Nostrand in 1967. Since the book was published over 40 years ago science and technology have undergone massive changes due to the computer revolution. Not only has available computing power increased by many orders of magnitude, easily available and easy to use software has become almost ubiquitous. In the 1960's my emphasis was on the development of equations, tables and graphs to help researchers design experiments based upon some wellknown mathematical models. When I reconsider this work in the light
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