Downscaling of future national capacity scenarios of the French electricity system to the regional level
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Downscaling of future national capacity scenarios of the French electricity system to the regional level Olfa Tlili1,2 · Christine Mansilla1 · Martin Robinius3 · David Severin Ryberg3 · Dilara Gülcin Caglayan3 · Jochen Linssen3 · Jean André4 · Yannick Perez2 · Detlef Stolten3 Received: 14 March 2019 / Accepted: 5 September 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract In order to respond to the COP21 targets in terms of carbon mitigation, the participant governments have set pledges and roadmaps for renewable energy penetration in order to decarbonize the different energy sectors (electricity, transport, industry, etc.). This paper raises the question of the regional distribution of the targeted renewable capacities and their precise locations across twelve regions in France. To do so, land and ocean eligibility for renewable penetration is studied taking into account the different environmental, techno-economic, social and political criteria constraining the implementation of renewable generation facilities. Onshore and offshore wind as well as solar photovoltaics (open field) are investigated. The maximum integration capacities are then evaluated for each region in France, and total 306, 33, and 1,626 GW respectively. According to a review of French capacity scenarios from in the literature, these potentials are clearly far beyond the renewable capacities suggested for 2035. Therefore, the eligible spots for renewable integration are subjected to a multi-criteria analysis in order to select the most propitious spots in response to the suggested capacities. Keywords Land · Ocean · Eligibility · Renewable · France · Regional
* Olfa Tlili [email protected] 1
I‑TESE, Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - Centre de Saclay, Gif‑sur‑Yvette, France
2
LGI, CentraleSupelec, Gif‑sur‑Yvette, France
3
IEK3 Jülich Forschungszentrum, Jülich, Germany
4
Air Liquide R&D Saclay, Paris, France
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1 Introduction Following the Paris agreement, France has set several environmental targets regarding the carbon footprint and the energy production and consumption for different timeframes. The French pledges announced at the COP21 aim at reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% by 2030 and 75% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels [1, 2]. In 2015, total French carbon emissions reached 336.6 M tCO2 excluding LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) emissions. 69.3% of these emissions were energy-related, from which only 9.2% were energy industry-related (including electricity and heat production, and refining activity) [3]. According to RTE, the French electricity transmission system operator (TSO) [4], only 18.7 Mt of CO2 were due to power generation in 2018. Indeed, the French electric system is one of the least emitting in Europe [5, 6] with a high share of nuclear generation exceeding 70% [7]. The French electricity production reached 549TWh in 2018, with nearly 72% of this production being generated by the nucle
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