Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods
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Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods Chalutwan Sansamur 1 & Anuwat Wiratsudakul 2 & Arisara Charoenpanyanet 3 & Veerasak Punyapornwithaya 4 Received: 16 April 2020 / Accepted: 15 October 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is recognized as an endemic disease in Thailand and throughout other countries in Southeast Asia. The underreporting of FMD outbreaks has affected the true status of the disease. This study aimed to determine the number of dairy farms in Chiang Mai that had experienced FMD outbreaks (FMD outbreak farm) during 2015–2016 using capturerecapture (CR) methods. Two independent FMD outbreak data sources including data from the livestock authorities and survey questionnaires were analyzed using Chapman estimator and Chao estimator. Results showed that the estimated number of FMD outbreak farms was 264 (95% CI = 250, 277) and 273 (95% CI = 259, 292) farms based on the Chapman estimator and Chao estimator, respectively. The estimated prevalence of FMD corresponding to the Chapman estimator was lower than the Chao estimator. The active approach of the survey method offered a higher degree of sensitivity compared to the passive method used by the livestock authorities. Estimations from the CR method provided an upper bound for the true number of outbreak farms. This study demonstrated the use of the CR method to estimate the true status of FMD outbreaks. Our proposed approach can potentially be used as a tool to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of established monitoring and surveillance systems. Keywords Foot and mouth disease . Outbreak . Prevalence . Capture-recapture method . Dairy farms
Introduction As a Southeast Asian continental region with a wide variety of livestock production, seven countries (Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand) frequently experience foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks that have resulted in significant economic impacts on the livelihoods of affected farmers in the region * Veerasak Punyapornwithaya [email protected] 1
Department of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, Thailand
2
Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health and The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
3
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
4
Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Centre for Asia Pacific, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, Thailand
(Gleeson 2002; Madin 2011; Knight-Jones and Rushton 2013; Ramanoon et al. 2013; Tum et al. 2015; Blacksell et al. 2019). The FMD virus from the family Picornoviridae is highly contagious and can infect any and all cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle,
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