Evaluating the relationship between climate variability and agricultural crops under indeterminacy
- PDF / 264,101 Bytes
- 8 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 90 Downloads / 187 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
Evaluating the relationship between climate variability and agricultural crops under indeterminacy Azhar Ali Janjua 1 & Muhammad Aslam 2
&
Naheed Sultana 3
Received: 25 June 2020 / Accepted: 16 September 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study investigates the climate impact on rice yield. It takes temperature and rain as indicator for climate variation on stages of growth of rice as independent variables and yield of rice as dependent variable. This study uses neutrosophic estimation and compares this with classical estimation. Estimated results show that climate variability is negatively impacting the rice yield and the crop is more vulnerable to variation in temperature than rain. Impact of climate variations on geographical regions is different which also highlights the priority territories which are more vulnerable to climate change. Neutrosophic estimation seems comparatively reliable and gives more information than classical estimation. JEL classification C89 . R11 . Q51 . Q54
1 Introduction Roles of agriculture are indispensably interconnected and it is a source of multiple activities beyond human food (Mclntyre, 2009). Agriculture contributes for energy extraction (Zaja and Angelova 2019), poverty reduction (Santika et al. 2019), strengthening industrialization and development (Thrillwall 2011), inclusive growth and food security (Dixit et al. 2019), and sustainability (Olivier 2019; Nair 2019). In Asia, rice is one of the main crops and has developed the backbone of food
* Muhammad Aslam [email protected] Azhar Ali Janjua [email protected] Naheed Sultana [email protected] 1
Department of Economics, The University of Lahore, Lahore 5400, Pakistan
2
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21551, Saudi Arabia
3
Department of Economics/Lahore Business School, University of the Lahore, Lahore 5400, Pakistan
security system (Xing et al. 2020). Rice is nourishing above 3 billion people universally and provides to about 20% of humans’ total calorie intake (Wang et al. 2019). Crops essentially require specific temperature and growth gets highly influenced with changes in temperature (He et al. 2019). Kobata et al. (2018) recommended average optimal temperature for rice ranges from 23 to 29 °C through grain filling stage. Global food production requires a growth of about 70% until 2050 to nourish the increasing population (Almeselmani et al. 2006). In case of South Asia, the temperature is expected to increase up to 4 °C by 2050 where projected cereal yield may decline up to 30% by 2050 (Pachauri and Reisinger 2008). IPCC (2018) forecasted that failure to restrain an increase in temperature from 1.5 to 2 °C may result in significant decline in yield of agricultural crops and a state of vulnerability for hundreds of million people. Pakistan is among the list of most vulnerable countries to climate change by the Global Climate Risk Index (CRI). Agriculture is highly threatened and
Data Loading...
