Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty
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Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty Michelle Bensi1 · Thomas Weaver2 Received: 26 November 2019 / Accepted: 11 June 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract In this paper, we identify, assess and characterize epistemic uncertainties associated with the estimation of tropical cyclone storm recurrence rates. To illustrate the potential effects of epistemic uncertainty, we develop a range of storm surge recurrence rates at representative locations along the North Atlantic coast of the USA. We further illustrate how storm rate uncertainty impacts estimates of storm surge hazards. We consider the following factors when evaluating epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate: (1) use of recorded storm track data versus interpolated storm track data, (2) the weighting method used for “counting” historical storms in the vicinity of the representative sites, (3) the kernel size used in the selected weighting method, (4) the intensity parameter used to filter “inconsequential storms” from the historical record, (5) the threshold value associated with the selected intensity filter, (6) the historical time period considered in the evaluation and (7) the impact of coastline geometry definition when partitioning storm populations. We observe that storm rate varies over orders of magnitude when considering these combinations of factors. When considering the effect of epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate on estimated storm hazards, we find that the corresponding range of storm surge elevation spans multiple meters for a given annual exceedance frequency. Keywords Tropical cyclone · Recurrence rate · Probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment · Epistemic uncertainty · Joint probability method Abbreviations AEF Annual exceedance frequency CPD Central pressure deficit FEMA Federal emergency management agency HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane database IPET Interagency performance evaluation task JPM Joint probability method NACCS North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study * Michelle Bensi [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1143 Glenn Martin Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA
2
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, USA
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
NRC Nuclear regulatory commission PSHA Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis PSSA Probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment TC Tropical cyclone USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers
1 Introduction Storm surge is a complex phenomenon characterized by the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above predicted astronomical tides. Storm surges from tropical and extra-tropical events can lead to significant impacts in coastal locations. Understanding the risks posed by storm surge requires a probabilistic assessment of the frequency and severity of storm surge events. Probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment (PSSA) is the systematic assessment of the likelihood that a parameter(s) representing the sever
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