Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially
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THE SPRINGER SERIES ON
DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS AND POPULATION ANALYSIS Series Editor
KENNETH C. LAND Duke University In recent decades, there has been a rapid development of demographic models and methods and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series seeks to provide a publication outlet both for high-quality textual and expository books on modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary applications of such techniques to various aspects of population analysis. Topics appropriate for the series include: • • • • • • • • • • • • •
General demographic methods Techniques of standardization Life table models and methods Multistate and multiregional life tables, analyses and projections Demographic aspects of biostatistics and epidemiology Stable population theory and its extensions Methods of indirect estimation Stochastic population models Event history analysis, duration analysis, and hazard regression models Demographic projection methods and population forecasts Techniques of applied demographic analysis, regional and local population estimates and projections Methods of estimation and projection for business and health care applications Methods and estimates for unique populations such as schools and students
Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in demography, sociology, economics, statistics, geography and regional science, public health and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and related fields.
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Jakub Bijak
Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View (with contribution by Arkadiusz Wi´sniowski)
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Jakub Bijak School of Social Sciences Centre for Population Change and S3RI University of Southampton Highfield Campus, SO17 1BJ Southampton, UK [email protected]
ISSN 1389-6784 ISBN 978-90-481-8896-3 e-ISBN 978-90-481-8897-0 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010936457 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To my Kasia – JKB
Acknowledgements
The majority of this book was prepared as a part of the work of the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, Warsaw (CEFMR), within the research grant number 03–34 of the Foundation for Population, Migration and Environment, Zurich (BMU-PME). CEFMR is a research partnership of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM),
