In Extremis Disruptive Events and Trends in Climate and Hydrology
The book addresses a weakness of current methodologies used in extreme value assessment, i.e. the assumption of stationarity, which is not given in reality. With respect to this issue a lot of new developed technologies are presented, i.e. influence of tr
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Jürgen P. Kropp · Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Editors
In Extremis Disruptive Events and Trends in Climate and Hydrology
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Editors Dr. Jürgen P. Kropp Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) Telegraphenberg A31 14412 Potsdam Germany [email protected]
Prof. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) Telegrafenberg 31 A 14473 Potsdam Germany [email protected]
ISBN 978-3-642-14862-0 e-ISBN 978-3-642-14863-7 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-14863-7 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010936200 c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: eStudio Calamar S.L., Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
Each day on Earth is pervaded by natural disasters or extreme events which can threaten any location on the globe but which take place inhomogeneously in space and time. The scale of economic damage and loss of life has increased during recent decades, and yet adequate risk management methods are not yet in place. Due to the interdisciplinary nature of these problems satisfactorily answers from different fields of expertise are needed. Consequently, this book represents a summarizing overview on original work performed at the interface between science and practice. It provides a more unifying overview than would be possible for certain disciplines alone. Cooperation and mutual learning are key elements in the still emerging field of transdisciplinarity. In this book, extreme events, trends, and correlations are the major fields of interest. Why is this so important? Humankind increasingly tends to initiate/unfold activities in risk-prone areas and has itself become a key player in environmental change. Both things in combination affect the quality of life and the viability of social as well as natural systems. To prevent and manage related risks novel approaches that deepen the understanding of extreme situations are required. Therefore, this book focuses on catastrophes, which are understood as extreme events. Incidents of this kind occur irregularly with differing severity and frequency. Typical examples incl
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