Uncertainties in predicting impacts of climate change on hydrology in basin scale: a review
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REVIEW PAPER
Uncertainties in predicting impacts of climate change on hydrology in basin scale: a review Dinu Maria Jose 1
&
Gowdagere Siddaramaiah Dwarakish 1
Received: 29 June 2020 / Accepted: 23 September 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract The sensitivity of the hydrological system to climate change and the role of hydrological systems in the environment have motivated researchers to study the impacts of climate change on hydrology. Modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change is generally done in various stages and has uncertainty associated with each of them. These include scenario uncertainty in climate scenario selection, model uncertainty in climate simulation by global climatic models (GCMs), uncertainties while downscaling GCMs, biases in downscaled data, erroneous input to the hydrological model, and uncertainty in the structure and parameterisation of the hydrological model. The present paper aims at reviewing the uncertainties involved at each stage of climate change impact assessment of hydrology. In the near future, climate scenario uncertainties would be smaller than those associated with the choice of GCMs. Multi-model ensemble approach takes better account of uncertainties involved with GCMs. Moreover, considering a range of possible climate scenarios is recommended than using a single best or average case climate scenario. GCMs shall be downscaled by statistical or dynamical methods (regional climatic models (RCMs)) before using them for regional studies. Bias correction methods can considerably improve the RCM simulations. Evaluation of model performance is recommended for regional-scale studies for the preparation of adaptation strategies. Taking into account the uncertainties associated with climate impact studies can help formulate effective adaptation strategies. Keywords Climate change . Hydrology . Uncertainty . Downscaling . Global climatic models
Introduction The environment has been altered by human activities for thousands of years (Vitousek 1994; Vitousek et al. 1997). Water is essential for the sustenance of life, but its availability at sustainable quantity and quality is often intimidated by numerous factors. Land use and climate change are two key factors which impact the quantity and quality of water available (Kaushal et al. 2017). A considerable increase in population, migration and socio-economic activities has led to drastic changes in the environment over the last few decades. These changes have, in turn, affected the stationarity of climate, i.e. climate change is beyond the past variability (Milly et al. Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel * Dinu Maria Jose [email protected] 1
Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangaluru, India
2008). Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature affect the discharge in rivers (Barnett et al. 2005). The information about future climate is necessary for planning efficient climate adaptation and mitigation strategies (Azhoni e
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