Modelling climate sensitivity of agriculture in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains of India
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Modelling climate sensitivity of agriculture in Transand Upper Gangetic Plains of India Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary 1 & Smita Sirohi 1 Received: 16 April 2019 / Accepted: 8 June 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The present study assesses the response of farm income to climatic variations and projects the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains Region of India. Panel data estimation of crop response function has been carried out by pooling long time series (1980–2009) and cross-section data of 84 districts. Climate change impact projections have been made with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario for the time slice 2010–2039 and two sub periods, viz. 2020–2029 and 2030–2039. The negative effect of rise in temperature on gross margin per hectare ranges from 10.5% in monsoon season (June to September) to 6.5% in winter season (October to February). The marginal effect of precipitation change is positive albeit of small magnitude, 0.04% and 0.03% , in the monsoon and winter season, respectively. Loss in annual gross margin per hectare in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains is projected to be 14.47% for the time slice 2010–2039. The losses are likely to escalate in 2030–2039 (17.06%) over 2020–2029 (15.86%). The northern part of the region will be affected adversely during the monsoon season, with the exception of a few districts which are likely to gain marginally due to winter warming. Keywords Panel data . Climate change impact . Farm income . Representative Concentration Pathway
1 Introduction The effect of various meteorological parameters on crop production depends on a combination of factors. Long-term changes in air temperature and atmospheric concentration of CO2 can have both negative and positive effects on crop growth. Higher temperatures can stress plants but also prolong growing seasons and allow a greater variety of crops to be grown (Lobell et al. 2008). Similarly, while higher concentration of CO2 speeds growth and increases resilience to water stress (Madhu and Hatfield 2013; Chaves and Oliveria 2004), it has an adverse effect on food quality (Ebi and Ziska 2018). Biophysical effects of climate change on agricultural produce depend on the region and the agricultural system, and the effects vary through time (Mendelsohn et al. 2006; Thornton et al. 2011). Research studies broadly indicate that while agricultural production in most tropical regions is likely to * Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary [email protected] 1
Scientist (Agricultural Economics) ICAR-Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh 284003, India
experience losses due to rising temperatures, in temperate regions it is expected to benefit from warmer climate and longer growing seasons (FAO 2018). The basic approach used in the studies to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural production is simulation modelling that predicts the behaviour of crop systems on the basis of quantitative und
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