Predicting impacts of climate variability on Banj oak ( Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus) forests: understanding future
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Predicting impacts of climate variability on Banj oak (Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus) forests: understanding future implications for Central Himalayas Shalini Dhyani 1 & Rakesh Kadaverugu 2
&
Paras Pujari 1
Received: 10 October 2019 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Climate variability is one of the most powerful drivers that have resulted in loss of forest ecosystems. Quercus leucotrichophora (A. Camus) (Banj oak) is a keystone tree in moist temperate forests of Central Himalayas. Banj oak forests have high biodiversity, soil organic matter, and water holding capacity that supports human well-being. Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressure has affected the regeneration and succession patterns in these forests. Conservation of Banj oak is a socio-ecological challenge and will require an interdisciplinary approach. In the present study, we have assessed the impact of climate variability on the ecological niche of Q. leucotrichophora using the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The occurrence locations of the tree species were obtained from primary survey and published works (1984 to 2018). CMIP5 (Couple Model Inter-comparison Project)-derived bioclimatic variables were used as predictor variables in the modeling. The predictions were done following four IPCC RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios for the future periods of 2050 and 2070. Our results show that the estimated potential habitats of the Q. leucotrichophora are likely to decline by 84–99%. Shift of the species from its present habitats due to climate variability reflects unusual patterns and demands climate adaptive management for forest landscape restoration (FLR) through active community involvement in the region. The study provides information about the suitable niches for the species of Banj oak forests and addresses the growing concern of spring-shed rejuvenation using climate adaptive FLR in Central Himalayas. Keywords Ecosystem services . Climate change . Species distribution model . Forest landscape restoration . MaxEnt
Communicated by Anne Bousquet-Melou Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01696-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Shalini Dhyani [email protected] * Rakesh Kadaverugu [email protected] Paras Pujari [email protected] 1
Water Technology and Management Division, CSIR–National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra 440020, India
2
Cleaner Technology and Modeling Division, CSIR–National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra 440020, India
Abbreviations AUC Area under curve CCSM4 The Community Climate System Model version 4 CMIP5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 DEM Digital Elevation Model FLR Forest Landscape Restoration FSI Forest Survey of India GBIF Global Biodiversity Information Facility GCM Global Climate Models GPS Global
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