Projected climate change in the Karkheh Basin, Iran, based on CORDEX models
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Projected climate change in the Karkheh Basin, Iran, based on CORDEX models Hamzeh Ahmadi 1 & Noredin Rostami 2
&
Abbasali Dadashi-roudbari 3
Received: 29 August 2019 / Accepted: 16 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing watersheds. In this study, the effects of climate change in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB), located in the Iranian plateau, have been investigated. The temperature and precipitation, as significant climatic parameters, have been investigated using the observed data (1980–2017), as a baseline period, and the projected data (2020–2090) which can be regarded as the output of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) model based on RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. The status of the snow cover changes was evaluated using MODIS TERRA satellite sensors. The results show that there has been a downward trend in the precipitation amount in most of the KRB, at 95% confidence level. The projected results also show that the amount of annual precipitation will decrease with the deviation from the baseline period. According to RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the amount of annual precipitation will decrease by 88.2 and 56.1 mm, respectively, as compared with the baseline period. Moreover, the air temperature trend in the future period will be increased by deviation from the baseline period. Thus, by the end of this century and according to RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the minimum temperatures will rise by 4.5 and 2.5 °C, respectively. Evaluation of the snow cover status of the study area, based on the MODIS sensor over the last two decades, shows that the amount of snow covers has been decreasing, reflecting global warming in recent years. Therefore, long-term planning and water resources management, considering the climate change condition, are considered significant in this basin. Keywords Climate change . CORDEX . Karkheh River Basin (KRB) . Snow cover . RCP scenarios . MODIS
1 Introduction Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the future. Any change in the atmosphere
* Noredin Rostami [email protected] Hamzeh Ahmadi [email protected] Abbasali Dadashi-roudbari [email protected] 1
Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
2
Department of Range and Watershed Management, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
3
Department of Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
behavior will cause direct and indirect changes in the environment, especially in the basins. Water resources are one of the most vulnerable parts of ecosystems to climate change and any changes in climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, will cause changes in hydrological processes; i.e., snowfall, drought, floods, and groundwater levels. Climate change and human actions, through increased pollutants and land use changes, play an im
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