Projected shifts in the distribution of malaria vectors due to climate change
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Projected shifts in the distribution of malaria vectors due to climate change Maria Chara Karypidou 1 & Vasiliki Almpanidou 2 & Adrian M. Tompkins 3 & Antonios D. Mazaris 2 & Sandra Gewehr 4 & Spiros Mourelatos 4 & Eleni Katragkou 1 Received: 10 June 2020 / Accepted: 29 October 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Climate change is postulated to alter the distribution and abundance of species which serve as vectors for pathogens and is thus expected to affect the transmission of infectious, vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The ability to project and therefore, to mitigate the risk of potential expansion of infectious diseases requires an understanding of how vectors respond to environmental change. Here, we used an extensive dataset on the distribution of the mosquito Anopheles sacharovi, a vector of malaria parasites in Greece, southeast Europe, to build a modeling framework that allowed us to project the potential species range within the next decades. In order to account for model uncertainty, we employed a multi-model approach, combining an ensemble of diverse correlative niche models and a mechanistic model to project the potential expansion of species distribution and to delineate hotspots of potential malaria risk areas. The performance of the models was evaluated using official records on autochthonous malaria incidents. Our projections demonstrated a gradual increase in the potential range of the vector distribution and thus, in the malaria receptive areas over time. Linking the model outputs with human population inhabiting the study region, we found that population at risk increases, relative to the baseline period. The methodological framework proposed and applied here, offers a solid basis for a climate change impact assessment on malaria risk, facilitating informed decision making at national and regional scales. Keywords Climate change . Malaria . Vector-borne diseases . Correlative nichemodels . VECTRI
* Maria Chara Karypidou [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Vector-borne diseases are infections caused by pathogens that are transmitted by vectors, such as mosquitoes, flies, and ticks. Vector-borne diseases cause more than 700,000 deaths annually, having dramatic socioeconomic impacts at a global scale (WHO 2020). Therefore, predictions of the distribution of vector populations could serve as a key step toward assessing spread patterns, guiding integrated disease-control activities for sustaining elimination, and preventing their reintroduction (Cunze et al. 2016). A number of studies suggest that transmission of most vector-borne diseases could become more severe as the climate of the planet is changing (Caminade et al. 2014). This is rather expected as climate change alters the distribution, abundance, and population dynamics of species, including those contributing to the transmission of infectious diseases (Watts et al. 2017). For example, even if an increase of temperature at the upper ther
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