A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in esthesinoeroblastoma
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in esthesinoeroblastoma Lijie Jiang1†, Tengjiao Lin2†, Yu Zhang2, Wenxiang Gao1, Jie Deng1, Zhaofeng Xu1, Xin Luo1, Zhaoqi Huang1, Fenghong Chen1, Jianbo Shi1 and Yinyan Lai1*
Abstract Background: Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods: This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were included. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p-value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results: The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions: The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan. Keywords: Esthesioneuroblastoma, Prognosis, Nomogram, Survival
Background ENB is a rare sinonasal tumor, which derived from the olfactory epithelium at the top of nasal cavity and is also named olfactory neuroblastoma [1]. It was reported that * Correspondence: [email protected] † Lijie Jiang and Tengjiao Lin contributed equally to this work. 1 The Otorhinolaryngology Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, No.58 Zhongshan Er Road, Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510080, P.R. China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
approximately 6% of nasal cavity and paranasal sinus tumors were ENB [2–4]. Berger and his colleagues first described the malignant neoplasm in 1924, and ENB is known to show variable progression [5]. Dulguerov reported that the diagnosis dif
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