A survival analysis of COVID-19 in the Mexican population
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A survival analysis of COVID-19 in the Mexican population Guillermo Salinas-Escudero1, María Fernanda Carrillo-Vega2* , Víctor Granados-García3, Silvia Martínez-Valverde1, Filiberto Toledano-Toledano4 and Juan Garduño-Espinosa5
Abstract Background: At present, the Americas report the largest number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide. In this region, Mexico is the third country with most deaths (20,781 total deaths). A sum that may be explained by the high proportion of people over 50 and the high rate of chronic diseases. The aim of this analysis is to investigate the risk factors associated with COVID-19 deaths in Mexican population using survival analysis. Methods: Our analysis includes all confirmed COVID-19 cases contained in the dataset published by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We applied survival analysis to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the Mexican population. From this analysis, we plotted Kaplan-Meier curves, and constructed a Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The analysis included the register of 16,752 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with mean age 46.55 ± 15.55 years; 58.02% (n = 9719) men, and 9.37% (n = 1569) deaths. Male sex, older age, chronic kidney disease, pneumonia, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, intubation, and health care in public health services, were independent factors increasing the risk of death due to COVID-19 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The risk of dying at any time during follow-up was clearly higher for men, individuals in older age groups, people with chronic kidney disease, and people hospitalized in public health services. Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemics, Mortality, Risk factors
Background The pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus, SARSCoV-2, has become one of the biggest health challenges worldwide. There are nearly 9 million confirmed cases and more than 465 thousand deaths as of June 22nd, 2020. This makes the COVID-19 pandemic one of the public health problems with a meaningful impact in the history of humanity. By the third week of June, the Americas were reporting the largest number of cases worldwide. The United States was the country with the highest number of total * Correspondence: [email protected] 2 Geriatric Epidemiology Unit, Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Av. Contreras 428, Col. San Jerónimo Lídice, Alcaldía Magdalena Contreras, Mexico City, Mexico Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
confirmed COVID-19 cases (2,241,178), followed by Brazil (1,067,579 cases), Perú (251,338 cases), Chile (242, 355 cases), and Mexico (175,202 cases). However, Mexico was third in the death count (20,781 total deaths) [1]. COVID-19 is commonly asymptomatic [2]. Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients frequently improve with time without specialized medical care [3]. But a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases develop pneumonia and acute severe respiratory failure [4]. These cases commonly require hos
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