Applying MCDA to weight indicators of seaport vulnerability to climate and extreme weather impacts for U.S. North Atlant
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Applying MCDA to weight indicators of seaport vulnerability to climate and extreme weather impacts for U.S. North Atlantic ports R. Duncan McIntosh1,2 · Austin Becker1
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This paper describes a case study applying multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to weight indicators for assessing the exposure and sensitivity of seaports to climate and extreme weather impacts. Researchers employed the analytic hierarchy method (AHP) of MCDA to generate weights for a subset of expert-selected indicators of seaport exposure and sensitivity to climate and extreme weather. The indicators were selected from the results of a survey of port-experts who ranked candidate indicators by magnitude of perceived correlation with the three components of vulnerability; exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. As those port-expert respondents found significantly stronger correlation between candidate indicators and the exposure and sensitivity of a port than with a port’s adaptive capacity, this AHP exercise did not include indicators of adaptive capacity. The weighted indicators were aggregated to generate composite indices of seaport exposure and sensitivity to climate and extreme weather for 22 major ports in the North East United States. Rank order generated by AHP-weighted aggregation was compared to a subjective expert-ranking of ports by expert-perceived vulnerability to climate and extreme weather. For the sample of 22 ports, the AHP-generated ranking matched three of the top four most vulnerable ports as assessed subjectively by port-experts. These results suggest that a composite index based on open data weighted via MCDA may eventually prove useful as a data-driven tool for identifying outliers in terms of relative seaport vulnerabilities, however, improvements in the standardized reporting and sharing of port data will be required before such an indicator-based assessment method can prove decision-relevant. Keywords Indicator · Seaport · Climate vulnerability · Analytical hierarchy method · Composite Index · Expert elicitation
1 Introduction 1.1 Seaport vulnerability to climate and extreme weather Seaports sit on the frontlines of our shores, consigned to battle the elements at the hazardous intersection of land and sea. Ports face projected increases in the frequency and severity of impacts driven by changes in water-related parameters such as mean sea level, wave height, salinity and acidity, * R. Duncan McIntosh [email protected] Austin Becker [email protected] 1
Department of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA
Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, Apia, Samoa
2
tidal regime, and sedimentation rates, and port functions are expected to be increasingly affected directly by changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, and storm frequency and intensity (Koppe et al. 2012; Becker et al. 2013). At the same time, ports are often located in environmentally sensitive ecosystems such as estuar
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