Applying the GM(1,1) model to simulate and predict the ecological footprint values of Suzhou city, China
- PDF / 881,457 Bytes
- 13 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 54 Downloads / 133 Views
Applying the GM(1,1) model to simulate and predict the ecological footprint values of Suzhou city, China Hong Yao1,2 · Qingxiang Zhang1,2 · Guangyuan Niu1,2 · Huan Liu1,2 · Yuxi Yang1 Received: 19 March 2020 / Accepted: 18 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The ecological footprint value (abbreviated as EF) is the quantitative indicator on evaluating the sustainable development status of a region. How to simulate the EF’s trend with a long-time data series has been heatedly discussed. The economic development of Suzhou, one of the most developed cities in Yangtze Delta, China, has been accelerated in the past 20 years, and it is necessary to evaluate the influence of the socioeconomic growth on local natural resources. The EF values of Suzhou from 1999 to 2018 were calculated and simulated using both the ARIMA model and the GM(1,1) model. The ARIMA model has been used in the prediction of EF values in several cases. However, the EF data series of the city consisted of white noise and could not be fitted by the ARIMA model. The GM(1,1) model, an approach forecasting nonlinear data series, was not found in the studies of the EF simulation. Through the model precision test, the GM(1,1) model introduced fit the EF data series well and was considered to be appropriate to simulate the EF values for Suzhou. The fitting performance was accurate, and the EF values of the city could be forecasted by the model in short term. With the proposed model, the ecological sustainability status of the city was analyzed. Keywords Ecological footprint simulation · The GM(1,1) model · Suzhou
* Hong Yao [email protected] Qingxiang Zhang [email protected] Guangyuan Niu [email protected] Huan Liu [email protected] Yuxi Yang [email protected] 1
School of Geography, Nantong University, Nantong 226019, China
2
Jiangsu Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute, Nantong 226019, China
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
H. Yao et al.
1 Introduction Ecological footprint (abbreviated as EF), proposed by William in the early 1990s and then developed by Wackernagel in 1996, is one of the most commonly used quantitative indicators on evaluating the sustainable development status of a region (Rees and Wackernagel 1996). The natural resources consumed could be tracked by the ecological footprint model, and the EF values quantitatively reflected the influence of human activities on local natural resources, which were converted into the common bio-productive area named as “global hectares.” Thus, the region’s sustainability status could be judged by comparing the EF values with the local ecological capacity. The EF model has been introduced at all scales including the globe (Rice 2007), nations (Viglizzo et al. 2011; Tian et al. 2019), provinces (Bao et al. 2011; Jia et al. 2010), cities (Li et al. 2010; Lu and Chen 2017), communities (Li et al. 2008) and individuals (Yang et al. 2018; Honti et al. 2019) and has been applied in climate change researches (Klein-Banai and Theis 2011; Beaussier et al. 2019), ecological risk assessm
Data Loading...
