The determinants of city population in China
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The determinants of city population in China Daidai Shen1 · Jean Claude Thill1 · Jiuwen Sun2 Received: 26 September 2019 / Accepted: 29 August 2020 © The Japan Section of the Regional Science Association International 2020
Abstract In this paper, the determinants of the urban population in China are empirically investigated with a theoretical equilibrium model of city size. While much of the research on urban size focuses on the impact of agglomeration economies based on the “optimal city size” theory, this model is eschewed in our study due to its theoretical paradox in the real world, and we turn instead toward an equilibrium model proposed by Camagni et al. (2013). This equilibrium model is estimated on a sample of 262 prefectural cities in China with panel data analysis. Empirical results partially validate theory, but some estimates reflect the status of China as a developing country. The analysis also reveals determinants have impacts on Chinese cities that vary with the stage of economic development. Keywords Equilibrium model · City size · Urbanization · Chinese urbanization
1 Introduction Much of the economics and geography disciplinary research on the growth of urban population has had a razor-sharp focus on specific factors that could be traced on theoretical grounds or from empirical evidence. Quite in contrast, other authors such as Batty (2008) have argued that cities are complex systems and that their population is affected by a whole range of intertwined dimensions. Taken together, these substitutable factors influence not only urban agglomeration economies but also other context conditions of cities, thus altering urban costs and benefits (Camagni et al. 2013). In this context, the experiences of developing countries where urbanization has followed a frantic pace over the past two to three decades remain largely unchartered. Although China’s profile is still that of a developing nation, China has arguably followed a rather singular path to urbanization during the modern and postmodern eras. Yet, there is still a dearth of scientific research on the determinants * Daidai Shen [email protected] 1
University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, USA
2
Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science
of population growth and on the structures of the urban system of contemporary China from an integrated perspective (Thill et al. 2017). Given this knowledge gap, this paper is a contribution aimed at establishing the existence of other determinants influencing urban agglomeration in China and their interrelated impact on urban population. Since Alonso’s seminal research (1971) on “the economics of urban size,” a body of conceptual and theoretical research has sought to gain a deeper understanding of the issue of optimal urban population. Skepticism about the scientific value of this theory of “optimal city size” is still lingering, in particular in light of the inconsistency between the theoretical “optimal city size” and
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