Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for the Central Anatolia region, Turkey
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for the Central Anatolia region, Turkey Bülent Özmen
Received: 9 May 2014 / Accepted: 14 August 2014 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2014
Abstract The aim of this study is to evaluate the Central Anatolia region of Turkey with regard to seismicity and earthquake hazard using available data on Mw≥4.0 earthquakes that occurred between 1900 and 2011 and the Gumbel Extreme Values method. Additionally, the study also aimed to determine the parameters associated with earthquake hazards. The seismicity analysis for the Central Anatolia region was performed by evaluating past earthquakes in six source regions located within the area falling within 38–41° N latitude and 30–35° E longitude. For each region, the researcher determined the occurrence probability and the return period for earthquakes strong enough to cause material damage and the possible maximum magnitudes for earthquakes that might occur in the future within a certain time period. Based on the study results, the researcher determined that the North Anatolian fault zone (zone 1) in Central Anatolia is the region characterized by the highest probability (89 %) than an Mw≥7.0 magnitude earthquake will occur within the next 100 years and that the return period in this zone for such an earthquake is 50 years. Keywords Central Anatolian . Turkey . Gumbel method . Seismicity . Earthquake hazard parameters
Introduction Turkey (or the Anatolian plate) is located between the African, Arabian, and Eurasian tectonic plates and moves B. Özmen (*) Earthquake Engineering Implementation and Research Center, Gazi University, Eti Mah. Yükseliş Sok. No. 5, Maltepe, Ankara 06570, Turkey e-mail: [email protected] B. Özmen e-mail: [email protected]
approximately 20–25 mm every year to the west. Due to its location, Turkey is also crossed by the AlpineHimalaya seismic belt. Based on the features of the faults and the characteristics of the earthquakes they cause, Koçyiğit and Özacar (2003) divided Turkey into four different neotectonic regions (Fig. 1). As shown in Fig. 1, the evaluated study area is further divided into two areas by the İnönü-Eskişehir fault zone. The areas to the north (N), northeast (NE), and east (E) of this fault zone are characterized as strike-slip neotectonic regions (with normal components); these regions have a transtensional neotectonic regime and strike-slip faults. On the other hand, the areas to the west (W), southwest (SW), and south (S) of the İnönü-Eskişehir fault zone are characterized as extensional neotectonic regions with a tensile neotectonic regime and oblique-slip normal faults. The Central Anatolia, the intra-plate area of the Anatolian microplate to the south of the North Anatolian fault, is generally regarded as a stable intraplate area without significant crustal deformation; Western and Eastern Anatolia are affected by Aegean extension and the Arabian collision, respectively (Okumura 2010). The neotectonics of seismically less active Central Anatolia,
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