Comprehensive Model for Simulation of Economic Transformation and Air Pollutant Control for Steel Cities
The steel-manufacturing intensive cities (steel cities) in China are facing a difficult position of economic transformation and air pollutant control. In this case, taking Tangshan as the research object, this study intends to simulate the developing tren
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Abstract The steel-manufacturing intensive cities (steel cities) in China are facing a difficult position of economic transformation and air pollutant control. In this case, taking Tangshan as the research object, this study intends to simulate the developing trends of steel cities and verify the effect of economic transformation by 2020 to explore the development rule of steel cities. The theories and methods of system dynamics, input-output theory and econometrics were adopted to establish a comprehensive evaluation model based on the detailed analysis of economy-energyenvironment (3Es) coupling mechanism in Tangshan. The multi-objective dynamic simulation from 2016 to 2020 was carried out by the comprehensive evaluation model. The simulation results show the gross production of Tangshan would get slow in the period of prediction. Compared with the data in 2016, the gross production increases only 11% in 2020. It even shows a decline of 1.4% in 2019, which conforms to the reality. The steel industry decreased 34.6% during this period, showing that its development was heavily impacted with the target of both economic transformation and air quality improvement. The simulation results are consistent with the real data. The accuracy of the comprehensive evaluation model and reliability of the prediction can be confirmed. It is difficult for Tangshan to achieve the dual goals of economic development and air pollution reduction by 2020 if it maintains the current level of economic structure and pollution control level. Adjustment of industrial structure would be the key way for a more reasonable development. Keywords Steel cities · 3Es model · Comprehensive evaluation model · Dynamic simulation
F. Cui · F. Xu School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, China N. Xiang (B) College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. K. S. Chan et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2020 International Conference on Resource Sustainability: Sustainable Urbanisation in the BRI Era (icRS Urbanisation 2020), Environmental Science and Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9605-6_16
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1 Introduction Steel-manufacturing industry has been a pillar industry in China for long time. However, due to the increasingly prominent environmental problems in recent years, the development of the steel industry is facing dilemma. As the largest steelmanufacturing intensive city (in short, steel city), Tangshan has also faced more and more serious environmental problem. Among the 74 cities monitored under the new standards in China, Tangshan’s comprehensive air quality index was 8.27, ranking only 70th. It is the industrial structure dominated by heavy industry and the energy structure dominated by fossil energy that causes Tangshan city facing increasingly serious atmospheric environmental problems. The economic growth of Tangshan
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