Crisis Management Simulation: Spread of Diseases in National University of Singapore
In an attempt to study the spread of diseases in the National University of Singapore (NUS), a simulation model unique to the NUS environment was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention policies during the event of a disease outb
- PDF / 1,274,729 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 430 x 660 pts Page_size
- 64 Downloads / 165 Views
National University of Singapore Computing 1, Law Link, Singapore 117590 [email protected]
Abstract. In an attempt to study the spread of diseases in the National University of Singapore (NUS), a simulation model unique to the NUS environment was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention policies during the event of a disease outbreak. The system allows the user to introduce a user-defined disease into the NUS population to study its impact. The effectiveness of various intervention policies on selected diseases are evaluated and presented in the paper.
1 Introduction A crisis can be defined as a crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending. In modern day context, a crisis could refer to a variety of events, including terrorist attacks, chemical spills and global pandemics. In crisis management, there are three main steps – identifying the crisis, planning a response to the crisis, and resolving the crisis. In this paper, we investigate the crisis of a disease outbreak due to the constant threat of an epidemic. Throughout history, there have been records of countless epidemics, resulting in massive loss of lives. In other cases, outbreaks of epidemics have caused intensive economic losses [7]. The severe impacts of epidemics make it extremely beneficial for us to be able to understand, anticipate and control the behavior of epidemics. Knowing the behaviors of epidemics allows us to plan responses before any outbreak, and allow for rapid and suitable decisions in times of crisis. In an attempt to control and prevent the occurrence of epidemics, scientists have been trying to predict and mimic the behaviors of epidemics through the use of various tools. Compartmental models using differential equations remain as important tools for epidemic simulation. This paper describes a model for a small population, or more specifically, the population at the National University of Singapore (NUS) campus. Unlike traditional models of epidemiology, this model will take into consideration factors such as space and motion. The spread of a disease will then be simulated based on this model. From the simulation results, we are able to analyze the impact of various diseases assuming that there is an outbreak in NUS. Using this model, we could then test the effectiveness of different intervention policies in their ability to resolve the outbreak. J.-W. Park, T.-G. Kim, and Y.-B. Kim (Eds.): AsiaSim 2007, CCIS 5, pp. 75–84, 2007. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007
76
G.S.H.Tan and R. Lau
2 Background and Related Work 2.1 Definition of Epidemiology, Basic Reproductive Ratio, etc Epidemiology is defined as the branch of medical science that deals with the incidence, distribution, and control of disease in a population. Epidemics can occur as a result of a very infectious disease. When the epidemic spreads across a large region, such as a continent or worldwide, it is described as pandemic. For the purpose of our study, disease shall refer to an impairment of the normal sta
Data Loading...
