Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?
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• Original Paper •
Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China? Huanhuan ZHU1, Zhihong JIANG*2, Juan LI1,2, Wei LI1, Cenxiao SUN1, and Laurent LI3 1Joint
International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2Key
Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and
Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 3Laboratoire
de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris 75005, France
(Received 30 December 2019; revised 30 April 2020; accepted 6 May 2020) ABSTRACT Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005, the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5), are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (CMIP6-MME) can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature. However, CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days, and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices. Compared to CMIP5, CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China. This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation, except for the consecutive dry days. The arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127% (CMIP5-MME) to 79% (CMIP6-MME). The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China, very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME, are largely reduced in CMIP6MME. Stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry biases. Wet biases for total precipitation, heavy precipitation, and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6MME, but smaller, compared to CMIP5-MME. Key words: CMIP6, CMIP5, intercomparison, climate extremes Citation: Zhu, H. H., Z. H. Jiang, J. LI, W. Li, C. X. Sun, and L. Li, 2020: Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China? Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1. (in press) Article Highlights:
• CMIP6 models, as with CMIP5 models, generally perform better in simulating annual mean temperature, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature, than in simulating extreme precipitation indices.
• The persistent dry biases in southern China in CMIP5-MME are largely reduced in CMIP6
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