Forecast of precipitation for the 1994 flood in Piedmont: performance of an ensemble system at convection-permitting res
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Forecast of precipitation for the 1994 flood in Piedmont: performance of an ensemble system at convection-permitting resolution I. M. L. Cerenzia 1 & G. Pincini 1 & T. Paccagnella 1 & E. Minguzzi 1 & T. Gastaldo 1 & V. Poli 1 & M. S. Tesini 1 & P. Patruno 1 & D. Cesari 1 Received: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 24 November 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
The major flood that affected the Piedmont region in Italy in November 1994 is reforecast after 25 years in ensemble mode at the convection-permitting resolution of 2.2 km using the regional model COSMO. The performance of the probabilistic forecast of precipitation is assessed against rain-gauge observations, also in comparison with the driver system, i.e., the probabilistic re-forecast produced by ECMWF based on the operational IFS (Cycle 46r1) at grid spacings of 18 km. The convection-allowing system dynamically downscales the ECMWF ensemble and includes an explicit treatment of deep convection. Results indicate that both systems can predict up to 4 days in advance the timing and the spatial patterns of the precipitation, although with higher confidence for the convection-resolving system. The benefit of high resolution is shown mainly in the prediction of intense precipitation and in terms of correct amounts and locations, and confidence of occurrence (at day 3, the estimated probability of exceedance of 200 mm was higher than 90% over areas actually hit by such rainfall amounts). Additionally, convection-permitting resolution improves the representation of orographic precipitation, reducing the upwind precipitation displacement typical of coarser models and including the possible development of strong convection episodes embedded in the large-scaleforced orographic rise. For the high-resolution ensemble, the spread indicates large uncertainty at the local scale, mainly in defining the flow tendency to flank or flow over each mountain. Keywords Convection-permitting model . Ensemble . High-resolution . Reforecast . Flood
* I. M. L. Cerenzia [email protected]
1
ARPAE-Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology
1 Introduction In the first few days of November 1994, a major flood invested the Piedmont region, in northwest Italy. From late 4 November to early 6 November, heavy rainfall affected a vast area of Piedmont, with observed precipitation exceeding 200 mm/day at various rain gauges (Buzzi et al. 1998; Luino 1999). A first maximum of precipitation affected the northwest sector of the Alps and a second was located over south Piedmont (Maritime Alps). Rainfalls produced exceptional river discharges and associated floods. They caused 77 casualties and extensive damages to infrastructure and agriculture. From a meteorological point of view, it was a complex flood-producing rainfall episode, activated by well-predictable large-scale forcings, and in which the small-scale interaction between the mesoscale flow and the topography played a major role in triggering the more severe precipitation events. In the following years,
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